Juncker’s big gamble set for photo-finish

By Martin Banks

Date: 07/07/05

UNTIL a few months ago, few would have bet on the citizens of passionately pro-European Luxembourg voting 'No' to the EU's constitutional treaty.

But the political landscape has changed following the referendum results in France and the Netherlands. The odds against the Grand Duchy rejecting the treaty in a vote on Sunday (10 July) have shortened considerably in recent weeks.

Under Luxembourg law, opinion polls cannot take place less than four weeks before the public goes to the ballot box. But, before polling stopped, the 'Yes' camp's share had narrowed, from 59% in April to 46% in May, while support for the 'No' vote had grown from 23% to 32%, according to the Ilres polling organisation.

Despite an agreement at the Brussels summit to extend the deadline for ratification of the treaty until at least mid-2006, political leaders in Luxembourg agreed to continue as planned with this weekend's vote. For Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's prime minister since 1995, the stakes are high. He has said he will resign if his country rejects the text.

He also acknowledges that the future of the treaty is at stake, accepting that a 'No' vote would all but kill off the treaty.

As Luxembourg is a founding member of the EU and is host to several of its institutions, its people might be expected to back the EU line.

But, according to Luxembourgers interviewed by European Voice this week, the outcome of the vote could be close.

Businessman Alain Eugene, 56, said: "I think a lot of people here will take their lead from the French and Dutch, say enough is enough and vote against the treaty. Before the French and Dutch referendums, I don't think there would have been a chance of that happening but things have changed. After all, what is there to lose?

"And even if the 'Yes' camp wins, a strong 'No' vote on Sunday would still be a sign that people are not happy with the current direction Europe is taking."

Guy Schwinninger, a financial manager for the CFL national railway company, said: "The French and Dutch votes will, I hope, prove a salutary lesson for our politicians. In future, they simply have to listen more carefully to what ordinary people are saying.

"However, I feel that I have to vote for the treaty if, for no other reason, than that it is better than continuing with the existing treaties."

Frederick Mueller, a 24-year-old student, said he was yet to make up his mind but thought he would vote 'No'. "There is a lot of concern in this country that we will lose out in a big way as the EU continues to expand. The EU has been good for Luxembourg for many years but maybe it is time to call a halt to further expansion."

Frank Engel, general secretary of the parliamentary group of the Christian Democrats, who, with 24 parliamentarians, are the biggest grouping in the 64-member Luxembourg assembly, said he would vote 'Yes' but accepted there was some growing scepticism about Europe among his compatriots.

He said: "The 'No' campaign has certainly been gaining ground in recent weeks and there are genuine concerns here about enlargement.

"I will be voting 'Yes' but people are mistrustful about our Eastern neighbours and many feel there has been too much expansion and too quick."

He added that: "The debate here, as in France and the Netherlands, has been more about these sort of issues rather than the actual constitution."

Sylvia Woldt, a housewife, said she would definitely vote 'No' on Sunday, saying she did not believe voters would be swayed by Juncker's threat to quit. "He is so popular that he would probably be re-elected in any subsequent election," she said.

Rehana Schwinninger-Ladak, a financial officer with the European Commission in Luxembourg, expected the 'Yes' camp to prevail, albeit by a small majority.

"It probably will not be the ringing endorsement some are looking for and there is still a chance people will be influenced by the results in France and the Netherlands," said the official.

The political establishment in the country's first referendum since 1937 has come out firmly behind the treaty and only one party, the right-wing populist ADR, which has five MPs, has campaigned against the treaty.

Its leader, former steelworker Gast Giberyen, who has campaigned for a "Europe of nations, not a European state", said he agreed with those who suggest that many of Luxembourg's population of 460,000 will be emboldened by the Dutch and French votes.

But another MP, Henre Grethen, leader of the liberal Democratic Party, which has ten MPs, was confident of a 'Yes' vote.

"Of course, the treaty is a compromise but it is going in the right direction. Holding a referendum was always going to be a big risk - look at what happened elsewhere - and my fear is that people may use the opportunity to lodge a protest vote," he said.

Article anticipates the popular referendum on the ratification of the European Constitution in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, 10 July 2005.