Nordics ponder EU membership

By Dick Leonard

Date: 08/09/05

The centre-right coalition government in Norway seems destined for defeat in the general election to be held next Monday (12 September). The three-party coalition of Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Liberals, led by the Christian Democrat Kjell Magne Bondevik, a Lutheran priest, is credited with a mere 28.3% of the votes in a recent opinion poll.

The three-party left-wing bloc, led by former Labour prime minister Jens Stoltenberg, but also including the Socialist Left and Centre parties, scored 49.8%, enough to give them an absolute majority in the Storting, Norway's lower house, with around 90 out of 169 seats. The far-right Progress Party, which had been informally supporting the government but recently fell out with it, is slated to win an impressive 19.2%.

The question of a third Norwegian application to join the EU is not an issue in the election. Nevertheless, Stoltenberg is far more enthusiastic than Bondevik.

A cautious man, Stoltenberg will not act precipitately and is only too aware that the two previous referenda were deeply divisive, not least in his own party. He is, however, thought to have set a benchmark of around 60% of popular support before taking the risk of another appeal to Norwegian voters.

In the meantime, along with Iceland and Liechtenstein, Norway benefits from its membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), which enables it, in particular, to gain free access to the single market, except for fish and agricultural products, which were excluded from the agreement. On the whole, the EEA has worked surprisingly well, and has led to very few disputes.

These have been adjudicated by the Brussels-based EFTA Surveillance Authority, currently presided over by the senior Norwegian diplomat, Einar Bull. Its authority, in relation to the EFTA members, is equivalent to that of the European Commission within the EU.

But many Norwegians regard the EEA as an unsatisfactory half-way house to full EU membership. Norway, they feel, is marginalised. It has no say in the formation of EU policies on, for example, competition and state aids, but is legally bound to implement them. It resents the application of anti-dumping duties on its salmon exports to the EU.

Iceland undoubtedly feels more comfortable within the EEA than Norway and has never previously sought membership of the EU. For many years it was an article of faith for most Icelanders that their unique dependence on the fishing industry would preclude their entry into the Union.

Yet this dependence is no longer as great as it used to be. Other industries, attracted by the abundance of natural energy resources, have established themselves, including a large aluminium plant, now owned by Alcan. These new industrial concerns account for more than half of Iceland's exports, compared to 41% for fish and other marine products.

Pressure has been building up for some time from the non-fisheries sector for Iceland to join the EU. Partly in response to this, the Prime Minister, Halldor Asgrimsson, has appointed a high level committee, chaired by Justice Minister Björn Bjarnason, to examine afresh the whole question of Iceland's relations with Europe.

The committee members have differing views on the desirability of EU membership and Bjarnason made it clear, when they visited Brussels in May, that he personally prefers the existing relationship through the EEA. The presentation of the committee's report seems likely to provide the occasion for the first serious debate on the issue in the Icelandic parliament, the Althingi.

Of the three main parties represented in the Althingi, only one - the opposition Social Democrats - has an official policy. It is strongly in favour of EU membership. Both parties in the governing coalition are split on the issue, with the prime minister's Progressive Party being marginally in favour, and the larger Independence Party predominantly against.

All Icelandic parties are agreed that no membership application could be launched unless it had been approved in advance by a referendum. It is extremely unlikely that any decision will be taken before the next general election, due in 2007. That, incidentally, was the date mentioned to me by a senior Norwegian official, as his personal estimate of when a Norwegian referendum might be held.

One thing neither country has to worry about is a negative reaction from the EU side. As highly prosperous countries, with long established democracies they would be most welcome recruits - despite the 'enlargement fatigue' currently prevailing, and most probably would easily leap-frog past existing candidates, including Croatia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, whose application Greece has just threatened to veto.

• Dick Leonard is the author of The Economist Guide to the European Union, whose 9th edition has just been published.

Author takes a look at the current prospects of Norway and Iceland joining the European Union.

European Commission: DG External Relations: Countries: Iceland http://ec.europa.eu/comm/external_relations/iceland/intro/index.htm

EEAS: Countries: Norway http://www.eeas.europa.eu/norway/index_en.htm

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