Historic chance or irreversible collapse of EU?

Date: 29/09/05

Two MEPs weigh up the possible consequences of Turkey eventually joining the European Union

It is a time of change - the Turkey that joins the EU, if indeed it does so, will be a very different country argues Kostas Hatzidakis

Turkey might never become an EU member. The European leaders in December 2004 concluded that "these negotiations are an open-ended process, the outcome of which cannot be guaranteed". There are many strong voices in Europe advocating the possibility of a 'privileged partnership' with Turkey. It has become clear that Turkey should be the one making all necessary concessions and far-reaching reforms in order to adapt to European standards. And still, the outcome of the process might not be positive.

If Turkey eventually joins the EU, one thing is already clear: it will not simply be the only Islamic EU state, but also a very different country from the one we know today. Its economy, for a start, will surely be in a much better shape. But politically I expect that when Turkey fulfils the criteria to become an EU member, it will then constitute a strong democracy with respect for human rights, religious freedom and the rule of law. In this context, the most important question is the role that the Turkish army should play in Turkish politics. This should not be any different from the role that the Portuguese, Swedish or Irish armies play in the political systems of their countries. Many long-standing disputes between Turkey and its neighbours will be resolved. The negotiation process with Turkey will give a new momentum to the resolution of the Cyprus problem, which will necessarily come to a successful end before the accession. As regards Greek-Turkish relations, they are!

also expected to be further improved with the settlement of the Aegean question.

Despite the anticipated progress, in economic terms Turkey's poverty, combined with its huge size and population, will constitute a major burden for the EU. Turkey's need for economic assistance via the structural funds will be enormous. Next to that, a big part of the Turkish population is currently engaged in farming, which will pose a great challenge to the Common Agricultural Policy. That is one of the reasons that the European Council last December made an explicit reference to "long transitional periods, derogations, specific arrangements or permanent safeguard clauses" for areas such as freedom of movement of persons, structural policies or agriculture. I believe that, as we approach the date of membership, derogations of this kind will be granted.

Turkey, whose population is expected to overtake Germany's by 2020, will be a major player in the decision-making process. It will have a significant number of votes in the Council of Ministers and a significant number of members in the European Parliament. How will it perform? Turkey will form alliances depending on the issue in question, which is already common practice in the EU. Turkey will probably align itself with the poorer member states in demanding more structural funds and financial assistance from the EU's net payers. Moreover, it is likely that, due to its current strong relationship with the US, Turkey will join the 'pro-Antlanticists' and seek to influence the way the foreign and security policy develops. I also believe that Turkey will find its natural allies in the neighbouring Balkan countries.

We cannot make any safe predictions at this stage. The negotiating process will last for at least ten years. During this period, it is not only Turkey that will change profoundly. The EU will change too and it is not yet clear which way it will be heading.

The European course can lead Turkey to a new phase in its history and ensure a better future for its citizens. It can also work as a catalyst for the resolution of existing disputes and the establishment of a secure and peaceful environment in Europe. Turkey's membership could be beneficial, provided that the accession process triggers the necessary reforms in Turkey. The key to the success lies solely with Turkey.

• Greek New Democracy MEP Kostas Hatzidakis is a member of the centre-right EPP-ED group and a delegate to the EU-Turkey joint Parliamentary committee.

Turkish obstinacy, combined with a powerful representation at EU-level will be bad news for the Union says Marios Matsakis

Turkey may join the EU in ten years' time. By then, it will have a population of approximately 80 million people and will be one of the largest member states. This will mean that Turkey will have a very powerful EU representation. For example, at the European Parliament-level Turkey will have as many, if not more, members as Germany. This will undoubtedly be used by Turkey to achieve significant political and economic benefits. As a traditional UK, Italy and US ally, Turkey will soon become part of an Anglo- Turk-Italian axis, establishing the exertion of an even stronger intra-European transatlantic influence.

When Turkey joins the EU, it will be the poorest member state and unfortunately the rapid increases in the cost of living usually associated with EU membership will mean that it will become even poorer, at least during the first few years of joining the EU. The number of people living below the poverty line and the number of the unemployed will increase drastically. Many Turks will be forced to leave their homeland in search of a better living in other European member states. This will create many social changes, especially with respect to family cohesion and traditional values.

The newly acquired democratic reforms and standards will increase workers' aspirations for better working conditions and salaries. At the same time, many inefficient businesses will have to close down. This will lead to increased unemployment and much unrest in employer/employee relationships, with long periods of industrial disputes.

At the same time, as Turkish manufacturing costs will inevitably be low, many more European businesses, such as car and electronic industries, will move to Turkey. This will, in the long term, assist in local technological advancement but it will also mean more unemployment for traditionally industrial nations.

Turkey has one of the largest armies in the world - it will be by far the largest in the EU. The military is also, in effect, the most powerful political force in the country. This will continue for many decades to come and Turkey will become the EU's most significant military power. Much of the Union's defence manufacturing, such as aircraft and tank production, will be done there and Turkey's regional superpower status will be strengthened.

Turkey's many internal problems, such as the Kurdish struggle for independence and the conflict of Islamic fundamentalism with secularism, will grow. Inevitably, these will become major internal problems requiring much effort, time and money in order to attempt to resolve them. Islamic fanaticism will gain momentum, as a 'European' Turkey will be seen as a traitor to fundamental Islamic values. This may lead to an intensification of Muslim terrorist attacks.

With regards to the chronic neighbourhood problems of Turkey (Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, Syria, Iraq) the Turkish government, having the advantage of EU membership, may become even more obstinate and irrational towards any attempts for a peaceful settlement of differences.

During the coming decades, approximately one in five EU citizens will be an Islamic Turk, Turkey will exert serious demands for an Islamisation of Europe - not just for religion but also for culture and traditions.

Inevitably, Europe will become less European and more Asiatic; less Christian and more Islamic; less Western and more Middle-Eastern.

Turkey will be an opened Pandora's Box of complicated and serious problems - a severe parasite on Europe. It will pose an unnecessarily high risk of a catastrophic EU politico-economic collapse and will irreversibly alter European values and way of life.

• Cyprus MEP Marios Matsakis is a member of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe and a delegate to the EU-Turkey joint Parliamentary committee.

Two MEPs weigh up the possible consequences of Turkey eventually joining the European Union.