Lithuanian politics. Elites, gherkins and sugar-beets

A country under a populist backlash

THE impeachment of President Rolandas Paksas, ousted in April after close associates were caught peddling access and influence to businessmen and criminals, has sent Lithuanian politics wobbling in odd directions. Mr Paksas is a populist who won the loyalty of rural voters - “sugar-beets”, as Lithuanians call them - by promising to stand up against elites in the cities and thieves in the government. The sugar-beets, angry at his ousting, are in search of new champions. In the European elections, they shunned established parties and rallied round a new populist vehicle, the Labour Party, led by Viktor Uspaskich, a Russian-born businessman-turned-politician known as “Mr Gherkin” after one of his product lines. Now the sugar-beets have another chance to speak, when voters choose a new president, in a run-off election on June 27th. A general election follows later in the year.

The front-runner for the presidency is Valdas Adamkus, president from 1998 until his defeat last year at the hands of Mr Paksas. But talk of a landslide for Mr Adamkus, a centre-right figure with no party affiliation, has subsided. Instead support is rising for his centre-left rival, Kazimira Prunskiene, runner-up in a first round of voting on June 12th, after an endorsement from Mr Paksas. The mood was unsettled further on June 22nd, when police raided the headquarters of political parties supporting Mr Adamkus. One newspaper called the raids an act of “political revenge” by admirers of Mr Paksas.

Mr Adamkus says he represents the future of Lithuania, and Mrs Prunskiene the past. The implication is that he stands for freedom, growth, the European Union and NATO (both of which it has just joined); and Mrs Prunskiene stands for a drift back to socialist, even Soviet, stagnation. Charges of being “soft on Moscow” have dogged Mrs Prunskiene since 1990-91, when she was prime minister during Lithuania's independence struggle. Nationalists said that she was too ready to compromise with the country's Soviet masters.

But at 77, Mr Adamkus is an unlikely spokesman for the future. And many voters are nostalgic for the past that he rejects. Lithuania is the second-poorest country in the EU after Latvia. Opinion polls suggest that most people, especially in rural areas, think they were better off in Soviet times. Some are now turning to Mr Uspaskich - and some to Mrs Prunskiene. A strong vote for Mrs Prunskiene would be worrying, even though the presidency is largely ceremonial. It would suggest that the general election in October could produce a populist coalition government led by Mr Uspaskich's Labour Party, with support from Mr Paksas's Liberal Democrats, and from Mrs Prunskiene's Farmers and New Democracy Union. Critics say that such a government would be both anti-reform and vulnerable to Russian influence.

Mr Uspaskich's strengths include his wealth, a common touch and a gift for telling dissatisfied voters what they want to hear. He promises to raise wages, pensions and farm subsidies. Lithuania, he says, “is going the wrong way, as unbridled capitalism and the shadow economy prevail.” The truth is more encouraging. The economy, though bridled by the meddling and cronyism of politicians, is one of the fastest-growing in Europe. Unemployment has been falling. The question is whether Mr Uspaskich's opponents can get that message across before October, in terms that even sugar-beets can grasp.