Germany’s gloom: That malaise thing

Date: 27/03/04

German voters (and politicians) are depressed about the future

IS GERMANY turning into a failed nation? Followers of the media might wonder. Newspapers keep up a steady drum-beat about the “Decline of a Super Star”, the title of a new book. The author, Gabor Steingart, does not want it to be another piece of self-hatred, but he argues that Germany's history since 1945 has been a big mistake, and that the country needs to be refounded. Its famed industry? Running out of steam. Innovation? Look elsewhere. Work ethic? On holiday. The welfare state? Bankrupt. The elites? Don't ask.

This mood of self-criticism is in serious danger of turning into self-flagellation. Political leaders are worried. Despondency has become a big theme in the campaign for the federal presidency. On March 25th Gerhard Schröder, Germany's embattled chancellor, made a statement to parliament that was to mark the first anniversary of his Agenda 2010 reform proposals, but was above all a call for more optimism.

Germans have never been cheery - Angst is a German word. Explanations include the weather, Protestantism, philosophy, the Nazi era. Yet what explains today's malaise is, in part, what followed the second world war: the Wirtschaftswunder, and a generous welfare state. Being world-class economically and socially became central to Germany's post-war identity. No longer topping the league has hit hard - as it did in Japan in the early 1990s. Bad news sinks in fast (German national income per person is below the EU average for the first time); good is ignored (the country is again the world's biggest exporter).

Add in persistently high unemployment, and it is not surprising that 47% of Germans, says one poll, think their country has “major problems”; 38% talk of a “severe crisis”; and 13% fret about a “catastrophe”. Less than 3% consider everything to be fine. In another poll, by the World Economic Forum, 69% of Germans said the next generation will be poorer than they are, compared with 48% of all west Europeans and 31% of North Americans.

A part of the malaise is, however, the fault of politicians, who have not sold the case for reforms well. Mr Schröder won the 2002 election on such issues as opposition to the war in Iraq and the floods in eastern Germany - plus a promise that nothing had to change. When he made his Agenda 2010 speech a year ago, it was little more than a laundry list; only a dozen lines were dedicated to why reforms were needed and where they should lead. This communication failure is surely the main reason why the Social Democrats' poll rating is now only 25% - and why there is talk of starting a new left-wing populist party.

As for the opposition conservatives, they give little impression of being ready for power. They want more far-reaching reforms than the government in taxes and health care. But they seem more obsessed by their choice of candidate for chancellor in 2006 than by the need to put together a coherent programme. As many as 80% of voters do not think the opposition would do a better job than the government.

The media do not help voters to grasp that in crisis is opportunity. Since the capital moved from Bonn to Berlin, a cosy cartel has been replaced by cut-throat competition, with more outlets, and plenty of big losses (which hardly make for positive thinking). News cycles are getting shorter, with trivia leaping into the headlines and any policy ideas swiftly shredded. Politicians complain that “tabloidisation” makes it hard to discuss complex structural reforms. And the press has developed a populist streak: what was long the province of Bild, the leading tabloid, can now be found in more highbrow publications, such as Stern and even Der Spiegel. Several papers have adopted Bild's habit of calling for far-reaching reforms but criticising specific ones as socially unbalanced.

The gloom might be helpful if it led to a jolt that shook up the country. But it could also tip into paralysis, as it did in Japan. And it is unlikely to change Germans' contradictory attitude to reform: they accept the need for change, but scream blue murder when they have to pay to see their doctor. Self-pity can also be an obstacle to the economy. If foreign investors are shunning Germany, that is partly a result of Germans bashing their own country.

Even in Angstland, however, hope springs eternal. The media are starting to realise that they may be part of the problem. Franz Müntefering, who has taken over from Mr Schröder as leader of the Social Democrats, has the right personality to persuade voters that, despite the pain of reforms, they need not fear the future. Germans will otherwise continue, as Johannes Rau, the outgoing federal president, puts it, to “walk around looking as if they have too much gastric acid.”

German voters (and politicians) are depressed about the future.

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