Opted in. France and terrorism

Date: 20/03/04

The idea that there are al-Qaeda opt-outs does not stand up

COULD opposition to the war in Iraq act as insurance against future al-Qaeda terrorist attacks? This theory did the rounds in such peacenik countries as France, Germany and Belgium after the Madrid bombs. But in truth these places are as vulnerable as anywhere.

The argument that France could be less exposed rested on the symbolic value of President Jacques Chirac's hostility to the war in Iraq, for which he was cheered in the Arab world. More concretely, France has been cited less often in al-Qaeda tapes, while those with troops in Iraq, notably America, Britain, Spain and Poland, have been picked out.

Moreover, the French have been monitoring, and to an extent containing, Islamic terrorism for years. Algerian terrorists planted bombs in Paris and Lyons in 1995-96, two of them deadly. Since then, France has been quick to put into effect longstanding plans to deploy all its security forces at times of high alert. With Europe's biggest Muslim population (some 4.5m), France has long had mosques and clandestine prayer halls under surveillance. Since September 11th, there have been some 150 arrests in France linked to Islamic terrorism.

Yet any complacency would be misplaced. France may not be “specifically targeted”, said Mr Chirac this week, but it “was not sheltered from terrorist acts”. The government raised the security alert in railway stations and airports to red, the second-highest level. With 32,000 km of railways, the French network is second in Europe only to Germany's. Inspectors were already combing the tracks for bombs, after the government received a bizarre blackmail threat from a previously unknown terrorist group, AZF. Since the Madrid attacks, French soldiers have been patrolling stations; metal covers have been fixed on litter bins on the metro; and plain-clothed agents have been put on the railways.

Recent messages explicitly threatening France are causing the greatest concern. This week, a letter from a hitherto unknown group called “The Servants of Allah, the Powerful and the Wise”, was sent to Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the prime minister, and two French newspapers, threatening to “plunge France into terror and remorse”. France lost its place as a friend of Islam, the group said, by banning the Muslim headscarf in state schools. This message came weeks after Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's number two, singled out the headscarf ban as more evidence of “the grudge the western crusaders have against Islam”.

Doubts remain about the authenticity of the latest letters, but the French take all warnings seriously. Intelligence sources say Italy and Britain are more likely targets, but France is on the list, and not just because of the headscarf. French special forces have been working alongside Americans in Afghanistan. “Al-Qaeda is opportunistic rather than strategic,” says Olivier Roy, a French specialist on Islam. “In France, it would find an argument to legitimise an attack.”

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