Denmark: Unpopularity begins at home

Date: 20/03/04

The Danish prime minister loses even more support

THE risk that al-Qaeda terrorists may be going for countries that joined the American-led war on Iraq is worrying Britons, Italians and Poles. But it has not yet sunk in among Danes. Just 48 hours after bombs ripped through trains in Madrid, customers were evacuated from a big Copenhagen Ikea store. It turned out to be a false alarm, but the reaction was telling: customers ambled out slowly and mulled around the entrance smoking cigarettes. Nobody ran. Nobody made any link between Spain's involvement in Iraq and Denmark's strong support for the war.

This relaxed attitude could change. Only five countries - America, Australia, Britain, Denmark and Poland - sent fighting troops to the war against Saddam Hussein. The Danish contribution of a small battleship and a submarine cast the country as a belligerent for the first time since 1864. After the Madrid bombings, all five bar Denmark stepped up security. The left-wing opposition has duly called for the withdrawal of the 500 Danish troops in Iraq, following Spain's example, but the government insists they should stay.

This pledge of allegiance to America could prove costly for Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the embattled Danish prime minister. Next week, he faces a public hearing into why he took Denmark into the war. That hearing could further dent Mr Fogh Rasmussen's popularity with an already disenchanted electorate. In one poll earlier this year, 35% of respondents said they could not think of a single admirable quality about their prime minister.

How different it was a year ago. Mr Fogh Rasmussen was being feted for his presidency of the European Union in the second half of 2002, when he concluded negotiations on the EU's enlargement. He was applauded at home for delivering his election promises. He was riding high in the polls. Then it all changed. The press became more critical of the man whose 2001 election win ended almost a decade of Social Democratic rule. The polls now point to his defeat in the next general election, though this need not be held until November 2005. His fan-club in Europe has shrunk, and he is no longer talked of as a serious runner for the European Commission presidency.

What went wrong? To be fair, several things were outside the prime minister's control. Germany's brief plunge into recession last year led to a slowdown in the Danish economy and a spike in unemployment. The strengthening of the euro, to which the Danish kroner is pegged, is hardly Mr Fogh Rasmussen's fault. Nor was the debacle over the euro-area's stability pact, or the collapse of negotiations on a new EU constitution in December.

Mr Fogh Rasmussen has won some kudos for cutting taxes, curbing immigration, improving pensioners' welfare and cracking down on violent crime. But his government has made little progress in cutting hospital waiting-lists. His promise to foster broader left-right co-operation now seems hollow. Measures this week to cut income taxes and boost employment might deliver a temporary revival in support. But with the spectre of Iraq and terrorism now hanging over him, Mr Fogh Rasmussen's hold on his job still looks tenuous.