Turkey and Cyprus: Erdogan’s gamble

Date: 17/01/04

A shift on northern Cyprus may help Turkey's European ambitions

THIS year has started auspiciously for Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister. That is just as well, because he has many hurdles to leap before December, when the European Union will either honour or withdraw its conditional promise to open membership talks.

The stakes could hardly be higher. As the Turkish leader, who preaches a mild version of Islamism, argued in Berlin recently, a slap in the face from Brussels would convince not only Turks, but Muslims everywhere, that the EU had decided to be a Christian club. That may be an exaggeration. But if Turkey fails to win its invitation to formal talks, democratic and economic reforms may be derailed; and Islamic militancy could grow.

For anybody who wants to avoid that, every tactical victory chalked up by Mr Erdogan is good news. He seems to have scored one this week by laying the ground for a shift in Turkish policy on Cyprus. Negotiations on the future of Cyprus, which is to join the EU in May, will have a big effect on Turkey's own European prospects - as Romano Prodi, who this week became the first European Commission president to visit Ankara since 1963, will have reminded his hosts.

At the very least, talks between the island's Greek and Turkish sides over a UN-sponsored peace plan - the failure of which is widely blamed on Rauf Denktash, the Turkish-Cypriot leader - must restart. There is some urgency, because the Greek-Cypriot government will be admitted to the EU in May with or without a settlement. In the short term, the island's internal division might then harden.

The chances of progress on Cyprus have now improved - thanks to political developments on the island that Mr Erdogan helped to engineer. Mehmet Ali Talat, a left-leaning Turkish Cypriot who favours the reunification of the island under the UN plan, has formed a government in coalition with Serdar Denktash, a more obdurate figure in the mould of his father, Rauf. The word in Ankara is that Mr Erdogan all but ordered moderates and hard-liners to share power. He got his way in the face of opposition from military hawks, led by General Aytac Yalman, say aides to Mr Erdogan. Some claim this is a sign that Turkey's top brass are being tamed.

The next crucial step is to get the UN secretary-general, Kofi Annan, to sponsor a new round of reunification talks. Exasperated by the energy he has already wasted, Mr Annan has said he will restart the process only if both sides agree to hold referendums on the settlement before May 1st. If those ballots produce a “yes” vote, the UN would sort out the remaining details. The UN, in other words, has had enough of Cypriot manoeuvring.

If the Turkish side now agrees to a version of the Annan proposals, the onus will then fall on the Greek Cypriots, who are far from enthusiastic about the plan. Tasos Papadopoulos, the Greek-Cypriot president, has already said that he is against a referendum before the conclusion of negotiations. But if the plan ultimately founders on Greek rather than Turkish intransigence, Mr Erdogan will at least have boosted his European credentials and taken a step closer to Brussels.

A shift on Northern Cyprus may help Turkey's European ambitions.

ESO: In Focus: European Commission President visits Turkey, January 2004 http://www.europeansources.info/record/european-commission-president-visits-turkey-january-2004/

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