European Union constitution: Back from the dead

Date: 07/02/04

Efforts are under way to revive negotiations on the EU constitution

IT WAS thought to have been killed in a Brussels debacle presided over by Italy's Silvio Berlusconi in December. But the European Union constitution is being quietly resurrected - and might even be agreed before the Irish presidency of the EU ends in June. That is a surprise. The talk after Brussels was of delay for a year or more. The Irish prime minister, Bertie Ahern, was invited to report where matters stood to a summit in March. The entry into the EU of ten new members on May 1st, plus European elections in June, seemed to preclude further serious negotiations.

Several things have changed. One is the attitude of the Irish, who at first played down their chances of concluding any constitutional deal. But over the past month Mr Ahern, a seasoned political negotiator, has spoken to every other EU leader. There is little else for his presidency to achieve. Getting a deal that eluded the Italians would be a satisfying coup.

A second change is the realisation that more time may not help. Already in March, the club of EU leaders that failed to agree in December will lose its Greek and Spanish members, after elections in which each is standing down. Later this year, a new commission and parliament will be in place; early next, elections in Britain and Poland may loom. And battles over the EU's next seven-year budget could by then be entering a critical, highly divisive, phase.

The third change is that those who torpedoed a deal in December are now ready to talk. Starting from three texts - the draft constitution proposed by the European convention last June, the report of the foreign ministers' meeting in Naples in November and the (unwritten) summary by Mr Berlusconi after December's summit - the Irish have identified some 20 remaining big disputes. They hope to narrow that list down to four or five, headed by the row over voting that pitched France and Germany against Spain and Poland.

The French and Germans left Brussels talking crossly of forming a hard core of “pioneers” to go ahead without the laggards. But the more they think about this idea, the more they realise that there is little of substance for such a group to agree to. More recently, the two have cosied up to the British, with a trilateral summit planned on February 18th. The French and Germans would now like a constitutional deal - provided they get their way on voting by so-called “double majority”.

That puts the spotlight on their two main opponents, who want to stick to the weighted voting system agreed in Nice in 2000: Spain and Poland. Spain will have a new prime minister, probably Mariano Rajoy, in March. The Spanish want the Germans to be more generous on the budget, so they may trade on voting.

The Poles, too, want cash. But they are more firmly attached than the Spanish to the Nice system. However, they say they are ready to talk after May 1st, when they become full members. They may accept the “double majority”, so long as it comes into force only in 2015, and is approved by a majority of governments in 2009. If the Irish handle matters deftly, a deal may thus be on the cards - though ratification will remain tricky. Britain's Tony Blair, facing hostility to the constitution at home, may be one of the few not to cheer.

Efforst are under way to revive negotiations on the EU constitution

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