The voters strike back

A dissatisfied electorate backs a populist with Russian connections

YOU might expect Lithuanians to be happy with their lot. They have one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe and they joined the European Union and NATO this year. They have not been this secure as a nation since the 17th century. Yet, like other new EU members, they are dissatisfied with their government. In a first round of parliamentary elections on October 10th, they demoted the ruling centre-left coalition into second place behind a newly minted populist party, the Labour Party, which promised cheaper heating, higher wages and higher pensions. Labour won 28.5% of the votes, and will now wrangle for a place in a coalition government.

Pollsters say the voters turned to Labour because they felt poor and depressed, they feared the free-market economy and they saw the mainstream political parties (with some justification) as elitist and corrupt. Many still believe that living standards were higher 20 years ago, when Lithuania was one of the richest republics in the Soviet Union, and not, as now, one of the poorest countries in the European Union.

The outgoing prime minister, Algirdas Brazauskas, who is 72, says that he may lead his coalition of Social Democrats and Social Liberals into an alliance with Labour, but only if he can stay on as prime minister. A government of that stamp would have a safe majority in parliament, but Labour's inexperience and populist leanings could make it an awkward bedfellow. So could the widespread supposition that Labour's leader, Viktor Uspaskich, a businessman-turned-MP who made money importing gas from Russia in the 1990s, has Russia's approval. Russia is pushing hard to increase its clout in the Baltic countries, and thus its clout in the EU. Lithuania's previous president, Rolandas Paksas, was ousted in April over his alleged links to influence-peddling cronies apparently behoven to Russian crooks and spooks.

Lithuania's tricky electoral system - which Labour wants to change - leaves the final shape of the parliament in doubt. Half of the 141 seats are filled by proportional representation, half from single-mandate constituencies. Second-round run-offs are needed in constituencies where no candidate secured a first-round majority. The Labour Party may emerge with 35-40 seats; Mr Brazauskas's centre-left block with 30-35; the main conservative and liberal parties, Homeland Union and the Liberal and Centre Union (LCU), may have 30-35 between them. The rest will go to three small blocks, including one loyal to Mr Paksas.

If Mr Brazauskas cannot do a deal with Labour, he may try for a “rainbow” coalition with Homeland Union and the LCU. But some in his party worry that shutting Labour out of power would only increase its popularity. Better to take the risk of bringing Mr Uspaskich into government, they say, and let responsibility curb him there.