Macedonia’s referendum. A narrow squeak

The country remains at peace, largely thanks to deft American diplomacy

THERE were sighs of relief almost everywhere, though nobody will ever know how narrow an escape from war one of Europe's most volatile states has just had - nor how big a role in hauling Macedonia back from the brink was played by the Americans. In any event, peace between the Slav Macedonian majority and the ethnic-Albanian minority is on track again. On November 10th, politicians from all sides assembled at Lake Ohrid to recommit themselves to a reconciliation process, launched on the same spot in 2001.

What made the gathering possible was the result, or rather non-result, of a referendum three days earlier, sponsored by hard-liners among the country's Slav Macedonian majority. They hoped the vote would derail a peace deal they saw as too generous to the minority. But, in the end, only 26% of the electorate - not enough for a quorum - turned out to vote. So the constitutional changes to devolve power to local authorities and to cut their number from 123 to 83, will go ahead (though the more controversial bits may be tweaked).

Only a few weeks ago, another result seemed likely. Senior American and European Union figures issued sharp warnings that the country's future was at stake. That stiffened the backs of Slav Macedonian nationalists, who seemed confident of wrecking the three-year-old peace process. What changed? America used honey instead of gall. In its first big foreign-policy move, the new Bush administration delighted Skopje by saying it would now recognise the country as the “Republic of Macedonia”. Until now, America and most other countries had used the name “Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia” out of deference to Greece, which fears a threat to its part of the Ottoman province of Macedonia, partitioned in 1913.

Predictably, America's move drew cries of anger in Greece, but they were restrained compared with the rage of 12 years ago when the Macedonian republic was proclaimed. At that time, a million people attended Greece's biggest-ever nationalist rally, and the government imposed a trade embargo that left Skopje short of oil and shivering.

Last week, only about 2,000 people from LAOS, an ultra-rightist party, attended a protest rally in Thessaloniki; a small neo-Nazi group burned an American and a Macedonian flag. If Greece is restraining its ire, it may be because it has little reason to fear its neighbour. Greeks have become the biggest investors in Macedonia. An Athens-based firm owns the oil refinery there and has built a pipeline from Thessaloniki to Skopje. The biggest Macedonian bank, a leading supermarket chain and a mobile-phone operator are all controlled by Greek interests.

Some Balkan-watchers were struck by the sophistication of America's tactics at a time when most eyes in Washington are fixed on the Middle East. If some senior Americans are focusing on the Balkans, further diplomatic moves - including on the future of Kosovo - may lie in store.

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