Observers on stand-by for Caucasus flashpoint

By Andrew Beatty

Date: 10/02/05

The EU is considering sending a team of observers to the Russian-Georgian border to replace international monitors when they are withdrawn next month.

Although member states are still arguing over the merits of an EU stand-alone mission, they are fearful of leaving the border between Georgia and the Russian regions of Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia unobserved.

Member states want the EU to make further efforts to keep in place the existing team of 100 monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), but some are sceptical of the chances of success.

The OSCE mission is currently being wound down because Russia vetoed the extension of its mandate late last year.

Russia claims that the OSCE team has done its job and is no longer cost-effective. But according to the EU's own assessments, the complete absence of independent monitors would lead to a "deficit of security" on the border, which would have to be addressed.

One European diplomat said that Russia was opposed to the OSCE reporting its military activities in the region.

"They do not like it when Russian helicopters are reported crossing the Georgian border," he said.

Diplomats say that there are major concerns over Russian incursions into Georgia and Russia's threats to launch pre-emptive strikes against targets inside the country, both of which would have serious repercussions for security in the Caucasus.

Georgia has demanded that an international force remain at the border and is asking the EU to help, although neither Tbilisi nor Brussels are ruling out further Russian involvement, which is seen as important for maintaining the current delicate balance. There are Russians in the existing OSCE team, which is drawn from 30 nations.

The Union's political and security committee discussed the plans for an unarmed EU mission this week, but the proposals are being held up because of concerns over Moscow's opposition. Russia has warned that deploying EU monitors "would not have a positive effect on EU-Russia relations".

France, Italy, Spain and Portugal are said to be sceptical of plans to set up an EU mission and are pushing for the Union, together with the US, to convince Russia to extend the OSCE mission.

France has expressed "reservations" about an EU mission and is keen to see a new OSCE mandate, with modifications if necessary, to bring Moscow on board.

But the UK, Germany and some EU members who joined last May see such a U-turn by Moscow as unlikely and are pressing for efforts to persuade Russia to be limited in time.

They are calling for the EU to launch its own fact-finding mission to the region which would lead to the establishment of a border patrol mission if no agreement was reached on extending the OSCE's mandate.

The idea is that the mission would draw on experience from similar activities in the former Yugoslavia.

Some say the possibility of extending the mission now "seems impossible" and are keen to stop further moves from Russia aimed at weakening the OSCE.

Moscow's anger with the organisation after it ruled the Ukrainian elections unfair prompted the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to call for an urgent review of its election-monitoring role.

Observers say Moscow has been increasingly prickly over the activities of the EU and US in its 'near abroad'.

The EU is expected to discuss the issue again in the coming days and with US President George W. Bush when he visits Brussels later this month.

Following Russia's veto of the extension of a 100-strong OSCE mission monitoring the border between Georgia and the Russian regions of Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia, the EU's Political and Security Committee is discussing plans to send a team of observers. The idea is opposed by both Russia and some EU Member States.

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