Austria’s far right: Haider reviver

Date: 13/03/04

The maverick Austrian bounces back

FOR over a year, commentators have predicted the electoral demise of Jorg Haider. On March 7th, the far-right Austrian proved them wrong with a spectacular win in his stronghold of Carinthia, where he has been governor since 1999. Mr Haider's Freedom Party won 42.5% of the vote, more than five years ago, and well ahead of the Social Democrats. The Social Democrats made gains mostly from the People's Party, whose vote fell by almost half to 11.6%.

The People's Party had promised not to vote for Mr Haider as governor. But it may change its tune, to keep him busy in Carinthia rather than risk his return to Vienna. There, he would make life harder for Chancellor Wolfgang Schussel's coalition, in which the Freedom Party is a junior partner.

The vote in Carinthia was a reversal from the general election in November 2002, when the People's Party won largely by winning over Freedom Party voters upset by Mr Haider's ouster of the party leadership, which undid the coalition. The Freedom Party's vote tumbled from 27% to 10%, and Mr Haider pledged to withdraw from national politics. But he continued to meddle from his Carinthian base. Will he now seek further revenge on Mr Schussel?

The chancellor certainly looks vulnerable. Besides Carinthia, the People's Party lost the governorship of Salzburg, which it had held since 1945, to the Social Democrats. Mr Schussel's finance minister, Karl-Heinz Grasser, who bolted from the Freedom Party in 2002, is under pressure over a dodgy donation for his website. As voters feel cuts in social spending, Mr Schussel may lose more support. Yet Mr Haider's options are limited. If he rattles the coalition too much, he will hurt his own party, which has few other talents and little voter appeal outside Carinthia. It lost heavily in Salzburg, and it faces a struggle in the European parliamentary elections in June. If he were now to bring down the government again, his party might be wiped out at the national level.

Yet the Social Democrats fear a head-on confrontation between Mr Schussel, a formidable campaigner, and their clever but colourless leader, Alfred Gusenbauer. Their hope is that Mr Schussel might take over from Romano Prodi as president of the European Commission later this year. But Mr Schussel may prefer to stay on, fending off Mr Haider's eruptions and calculating that, by 2006, an economic upswing may arrive in time to re-elect his coalition.

• Primary Source