Ukraine’s European choice

The October 2004 presidential election in Ukraine will determine the extent to which Ukraine will be pro-Western and pro-reform or Russia-focused and reform-averse. But whoever is the next Ukrainian president, he will struggle to open up the economy, fight corruption and streamline the state administration. Change in Ukraine will remain slow. The EU's new neighbourhood policy is a welcome attempt to help stabilise and modernise countries that are not lined up for EU membership. But its incentives - mainly gradual access to the single market - are not strong enough to affect policy choices in countries such as Ukraine. Ukraine has called for an EU 'membership perspective'. But it has not undertaken the reforms needed for accession. Nevertheless, the EU's refusal to even talk about the possibility of membership looks untenable.