Turkey talks: what impact on the Balkans?

Date: 25/11/04

By Rumyana Vakarelska

TURKEY will be a hot topic in December, when the European Council will take a decision as to whether to start EU accession talks with the aspirant country.

Up to now, two key questions have remained open about the outcome of Turkey's efforts to start accession talks: how to reach the hearts and minds of the EU's public - which is still sceptical about Ankara's admission to the Union - and what will be the impact on the Balkans of Turkish accession?

Most political analysts expect that next month's EU summit will grant Turkey the right to start talks, following the European Commission's recommendation to that effect last month. The issue was also discussed on 24 November, when Turkish representatives met an EU troika of ministers in The Hague.

At the meeting, representatives of the Dutch EU presidency, including Foreign Minister Bernard Bot and the Minister for European Affairs Atzo Nicolaï, and the Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül, looked closely once again at whether Turkey meets the EU's political criteria.

Like the European Commission, the high profile Independent Commission for Turkey has concluded in its report Turkey in Europe that the country has now satisfied the Copenhagen criteria but has not suggested a specific start date for negotiations.

The authors have toured Europe to discuss the report's conclusions - which are shared by most EU politicians - and have answered further questions on their findings. The authors have considered the implications of Turkey's blocking power in the EU, but have not set the issue in the context of Balkan politics.

Martti Ahtisaari, the former president of Finland and chairman of the independent commission, said that “further delay [in opening negotiations with Turkey] will damage the European Union's credibility”.

Italian MEP Emma Bonino, co-author of the report, said: “The cost of opening negotiations is high, but the cost of not opening them might be higher.”

Heather Grabbe, who has just joined the cabinet of Olli Rehn, the enlargement commissioner, and is the author of a number of essays on Turkey's accession, has pointed out that although the EU and Turkey will benefit from starting negotiations, both political entities will have to deal with the EU public's scepticism on the issue.

Grabbe quotes Eurobarometer data from early this year showing that many in the EU's then 15 member states responded that “Turkey is a step too far - politically, geographically and psychologically”.

One-third of these countries' populations was 'for', while half was 'against'. Post-enlargement data, following the EU enlargement eastwards last Spring, is not yet conclusive, but it is not expected to change these figures significantly.

It is difficult to make a sound assessment of the impact of Turkey's accession on the Balkans, where political stability cannot be taken for granted, but such forecasts are necessary, if only to make sense of the tensions between Muslims and Christians around Macedonia's referendum on local government on 7 November.

Similar processes are taking place in Kosovo, although under close international observation, where Christian populations from both territories emigrate to neighbouring, predominantly Christian countries.

Hans van den Broek, a former commissioner for external relations and another member of the Independent Commission for Turkey, believes that “by the time Turkey joins the EU, Bulgaria, Romania - and possibly Macedonia and Croatia - as well as Albania, will be EU members”.

According to van den Broek, EU membership of more Balkan countries will bring stability. But the question is whether EU membership can resolve centuries-old tensions.

The continuous enlargement process is likely to shape Europe as a looser federation in which regional policies and developments may be as important as pan-European agendas.

Population movement across the Balkan borders may be taken as a real-life test of stability in the Balkans and then analyzed against the impact of decisions on the region taken in Brussels or Washington.

Currently, young Christian Macedonians represent the highest number of foreign students in Bulgaria.

According to the students, this choice, like previous immigration trends in the region, is taken for ethnic, historic and cultural rather than economic reasons.

John Phillips, a Balkan observer, The Times newspaper's correspondent in Rome and author of a book on Macedonia published last month, says that Turkey's accession to the EU “could be positive for Macedonia if it means Ankara playing a more active role in supporting the Macedonian state's battle for survival”.

The Balkan countries remain in relative international isolation, even after the end of the war in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the advanced EU accession process in Bulgaria and Romania. So they remain interdependent on a number of issues, from fighting crime to getting further EU support for regional development. Any decisions related to Turkey's EU accession may again raise ethnic tensions and destabilize the political processes in the region.

On 17 December, EU leaders will give their verdict with high implications for the Balkans.

• Rumyana Vakarelska is a freelance journalist.

Analysis feature in which the author discusses the question of popular consent in the EU for offering Turkey a real prospect of membership, and the possible effect Turkey's membership would have on the Balkan countries which aspire to accession.