Battle for power under way as internationalists aim to regain Republican power

By Stewart Fleming and Craig Winneker

Date: 10/11/04

Within hours of the Republicans' victory in last week's presidential election the battle for power in the second administration of President George W. Bush erupted.

It pits neo-conservative "America-firsters" against the internationalists who lost out two years ago when they tried to restrain the dash to war in Iraq to gather broader worldwide support.

The most public sign of the struggle came at the weekend when the newly elected president's father, former president George Bush senior appeared on British television subtly pressing the case for Washington to engage more closely with its allies.

Given what is at stake and therefore the extent of the anticipated shake-up, the timing of any changes is uncertain. Most public attention has focused on the candidates for the traditional foreign policy posts, such as secretary of state and defence. But the internationalists are just as concerned about the US's need to beef up its foreign economic diplomacy so as better to manage its emerging dollar devaluation strategy and try to unwind global economic imbalances in an orderly way. Even Republican insiders concede that the US Treasury has been ineffectual under both the egregious Paul O'Neill and his successor John Snow. This is deeply worrying now that the Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan's tenure is winding down and the global economy slowing.

A clue to how the battle is progressing will come when a decision emerges on the future of the US trade representative (USTR), Robert Zoellick, a pragmatist with the credentials to occupy any of the most senior cabinet positions.

As far as the trade portfolio is concerned, officials such as Josette Shiner, deputy USTR for Asia, Grant Aldonas, commerce department secretary for international trade and Gary Edson, a senior White House economic advisor, are said to be in the frame.

None is seen as an ideological right-winger. Josh Bolten, a former London-based banker at Goldman Sachs who is currently director of the office of management and budget, is also mentioned, but he is close to the president and probably destined for higher things.

As for secretary of state, most observers expect Colin Powell to leave. Among those most prominently mentioned as possible replacements are current national security advisor Condoleezza Rice and US ambassador to the UN, John Danforth. Rice, however, is said to prefer to take over at the Pentagon, where Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is trying to hang on to his job indefinitely.

Danforth, a former senator from Missouri, is also an Episcopalian minister. He would be acceptable to many Senate Democrats and to Christian fundamentalists. Europeans would probably find him a trustworthy interlocutor, but, as with Powell, might worry about who is really calling the shots.

Long-shot choices to replace Powell include senate foreign relations committee chairman Richard Lugar and former senator Sam Nunn, a Democrat from Georgia.

Ultra-conservative attorney- general John Ashcroft has had medical problems and the White House will be happy to let him go. Danforth has been mentioned again here, as has Marc Racicot, the former governor of Montana who chaired Bush's re-election campaign. The leading candidate is Larry Thompson, currently the deputy attorney-general, who would be the first black to hold the job. None would be likely to change the justice department's policies vis-à-vis the EU on anti-trust policy or international law-enforcement agreements, for example.

At homeland security, Tom Ridge is expected to step down. Most prominently mentioned as a replacement is Dan Coats, who was named US ambassador to Germany after being passed over for Rumsfeld at the defence department. As for the US ambassador to the EU, do not expect a change to happen too quickly for this job, which is pretty far down on the food chain. Word is that Rockwell Schnabel, the current ambassador, would like to be commerce secretary (he held a position in the department during the Bush I presidency).

Authors report on a power struggle in the US Republican party following the 2004 Presidential elections between neo-conservative "America-firsters" and internationalists.