Safe bets and surprises for new College

By David Cronin

Date: 08/07/04

AS MANY as ten new faces could be seen in the new European Commission when it begins its mandate in November, according to insiders.

The only definite newcomer so far is José Manuel Barroso, who will succeed Romano Prodi as Commission president if Parliament endorses the choice of the European Council.

Finland's Olli Rehn, confirmed this week as the new Finnish commissioner, seems almost as safe a bet for the new College. He was named this week to take over on Monday (12 July) from Erkki Liikanen, who returns to Helsinki as governor of the Finnish central bank.

Like Rehn and Greece's Stavros Dimas, Spain's Joaquín Almunia is a recent addition to the Prodi Commission. It is possible that Javier Solana will take over the reins as Spain's commissioner, though probably not from November. The EU leaders have approved the appointment of Solana as the Union's foreign minister, which under the new EU constitution would also make him a member of the Commission. But he would only be able to take up those Commission duties once the constitution is ratified and takes effect. It is uncertain whether Almunia will be sent back home once Solana takes over this post when the constitution enters into force, possibly in 2007.

Neither the current commissioner for external relations, Chris Patten, nor the other British commissioner, Neil Kinnock, will be returning to Brussels. Tony Blair has been coy about a replacement, while speculation has concentrated on Peter Mandelson, his long-standing confidant who has twice been forced to resign from the UK government. Blair's concern will be to net a powerful portfolio for his nominee, ideally the "super-commissioner" in charge of the Lisbon Agenda of economic reform. But it is widely thought that Germany has already won an assurance that Günter Verheugen, the current enlargement commissioner, would be given that portfolio in return for Berlin supporting Barroso's nomination as Commission president.

Recently there has been talk of Patricia Hewitt, the trade and industry secretary and minister for women's affairs, as a possibility for Brussels, if Blair could secure the internal market portfolio. The Development Secretary Valerie Amos is regarded as having an outside chance of securing the nomination. If she did, the Guyana-born woman would become the first black member of the College. Barroso has already said he wants governments to nominate more women.

In Belgium, the regional elections weakened the bargaining power of the Liberals in their attempts to replace the socialist Philippe Busquin with Louis Michel, a Francophone Liberal, currently foreign minister. Talks are under way between Socialist and Liberal parties to see if the former could support Michel. Busquin, former head of the French-speaking Socialists, was elected to the European Parliament last month.

Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern has been as tight-lipped about his nomination plans as he was about the Commission presidency. Joe Walsh, the farm minister in the Dublin government, is thought to have his eyes on the agriculture portfolio, which Franz Fischler of Austria will vacate after holding it for a decade.

Some insiders say there is a tussle between Ireland and the Netherlands for this job; the Dutch would like it to go to their farm minister Cees Veerman. The Irish Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy has denied that he wants to move to Brussels.

Vienna is expected to ask Foreign Minister Benita Ferrero-Waldner to follow Fischler. Copenhagen is likely to name Europe Minister Bertel Haarder to succeed Poul Nielson as the Danish commissioner.

The chances that Mario Monti might remain as Italy's commissioner strengthened this week when he turned down the chance to take over from Giulio Tremonti as finance minister in Rome. Monti met Barroso in Lisbon this week. Europe Minister Rocco Buttiglione is tipped as another contender to be Italy's man in Brussels.

If Monti does remain in the executive he might have to relinquish his cherished competition post to Frenchman Jacques Barrot, as part of an alleged deal between President Jacques Chirac and Barroso.

Sweden's Margot Wallström and Luxembourg's Viviane Reding are expected to be reappointed for another term.

Of the commissioners from the ten new member states, almost all look set to remain.

There has been speculation that Hungary's Péter Balazs could be asked to make way by Budapest for Foreign Minister László Kovâcs. Uncertainty lingers over the fate of Czech commissioner Pavel Telicka because of the political instability in Prague following Vladimir Spidla's recent resignation as premier. Sources close to Telicka say that he is likely to remain in the EU executive.

Major feature speculates on who will become Commissioners in the new European Commission from autumn 2004.

http://ec.europa.eu/archives/commission_2004-2009/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/archives/commission_2004-2009/index_en.htm

---