Europe dreams of multilateralism comeback should Kerry succeed in burning Bush

Date: 18/03/04

BEATING out George W. Bush in the hearts and minds of Europeans would not exactly be a tough task for most US presidential hopefuls.

But for John Kerry, it should be a cakewalk.

Hopes are arguably high across the continent that the now confirmed Democratic presidential candidate could cut a fine figure on this side of the Atlantic if he replaces Bush in what is shaping up to be a very close election next November.

Of course Kerry's international credentials, including a penchant for globetrotting, a well-connected clan of French cousins (he speaks the language) and a wife with Portuguese roots, must be kept separate from how his potential policies would pan out vis-à-vis the EU, which still remains anyone's guess.

But he has already struck a chord in Europe by criticizing Bush's "erratic unilateralism".

"If Kerry wins, the more he conquers America's indifference toward Europe and the more he expects of us, the better it will be for transatlantic relations," former German president Richard von Weizsäcker wrote last month in the Welt am Sonntag newspaper.

"[Kerry] wants to consult America's valuable allies, rather than frightening them off," he added. "He is committed to protecting the environment and wants cooperation within the United Nations."

Usually, continuity in US foreign policy is what the rest of the world craves, if only for the sake of some kind of 'global geopolitical stability'.

This time, however, foreign-policy practitioners are singing a different tune, pining for a Kerry who will return the US to the multilateralism it abandoned three years ago.

And many would doubtless privately echo what has become one of the mantras of the Massachusetts senator's main campaign speech - that the Bush administration "has run the most arrogant, inept, reckless and ideological foreign policy in the modern history of our country".

Kerry's central criticism of the administration's strategy is that it has alienated traditional allies and damaged America's world standing.

He has accused the Bush team - "intoxicated with the pre-eminence of American power" - of abandoning "belief in collective security, respect for international institutions and international law, multilateral engagement and the use of force not as a first option but truly as a last resort".

The upshot, as some analysts see it, will be a 'kinder, gentler' Bush administration over the next six months, one that will strive ever more to improve its own strained relations with European countries that opposed the Iraq war.

Still, Kerry appears to be a cut above many other US politicians when it comes to understanding the wider world - and thus taking its needs into consideration.

Unlike some members of Congress who don't even hold updated US passports as they do not perceive any need to leave the country, his international credentials are lengthy: son of a foreign service officer, he attended a Swiss school and spent 18 years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. His wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, was raised in Mozambique and educated in South Africa. Among Kerry's French first cousins figures former cabinet minister Brice Lalonde.

"I would think he would have a strong interest in foreign issues, unlike Bush who doesn't even read the papers," said William Drozdiak, executive director of the German Marshall Fund's (GMF) Transatlantic Center in Brussels.

"And he would probably take a greater personal interest in European affairs." However, Drozdiak, who was quick to add the GMF is a non-partisan outfit that prides itself on favouring neither Democrats nor the Republicans, said the extent of his interest in Europe would also naturally depend on whom he would pick to represent Washington abroad.

"If he appoints a very strong-willed secretary of state, like Richard Holbrooke," he suggested, this could really alter the flavour of transatlantic relations.

"However, if he did something differently and tried to reach across the aisle and pick a Republican with more nationalist links, like Chuck Hagel, that would be different."

Bush, however, is hitting back by making nice with the Europeans - and he will have lots of opportunities to do so soon.

There was the recent visit to Washington of German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Then there will be a great photo opportunity on 6 June, the 60th anniversary of D-Day, Drozdiak said, which "his advisors are surely telling him to take advantage of".

"There will probably be a powerful picture of him on the cliffs of Normandy, showing him standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Blair, Schröder and Chirac," he said, the British, German and French leaders.

Then there will be the US-EU summit in Ireland in June and the NATO Istanbul summit, making for "a triple-crown of summits which will be used to portray Bush in a positive light", said Drozdiak.

In the run-up to the November presidential election, "that will be the highlight in terms of international diplomacy," he predicted.

Despite such razzle-dazzle photo opportunities, many analysts would agree with Stanley Crossick, director and founding chairman of the Brussels-based European Policy Centre (EPC) that "Bush is a serious negative for transatlantic relations".

But, Crossick cautioned, just how far Kerry could go in repairing transatlantic relations would depend very much on who else is in charge.

"I don't think there's any doubt that the music will be different," he said.

"The real question will be whether the libretto will be different. Yes, he will be talking multilateralism and he will be talking partnership and he is likely to be more comfortable with Europeans."

However, he added, "I think 9/11 has changed the United States in a way that Europeans cannot appreciate". (Crossick was speaking before last week's bombing in Madrid.) George Bush's predecessor Bill Clinton, moreover, was also operating within certain constraints, Crossick cautioned.

"You should not think that Clinton did not act unilaterally - but he did always present whatever he did in a multilateral manner and he always used the right vocabulary," Crossick said.

"But on issues like Kyoto, he knew he could not get that through Congress.

"Bush is so negative on environmental policy, but how far down the road Kerry can go with Kyoto is doubtful."

However, Crossick added: "Where he is clearly different from Bush is that he would recognize that in peacekeeping and nation-building the United States must work with the United Nations and Europe."

Another potential difference, given all the noise Kerry has been making about salvaging US jobs, is that he could be branded a protectionist.

"Kerry is making noises that he could be playing the protectionist card while campaigning and that could tie his hands a lot. But it's too early to judge now, until you see his final team of foreign policy advisors. Think about how long it took us to fully understand Clinton. You would have a completely different picture [before he was elected] than what Clinton really was."

As for Kerry's chances of winning, Crossick said: "What's clear is it's going to be relatively close."

Events, such as a possible terror attack, the economy and Iraq are key to the incumbent or the candidate gaining the upper hand.

"Events could loose it for Bush, as he is quite sound now in dealing with the [American] public. Kerry is still not proven." But, Crossick added, aspects of the US economy and the situation in Iraq are likely to get worse, which could be in Kerry's favour: "Finally we cannot underestimate that Bush has a war chest which is huge." [Bush's campaign had $108 million at the end of January, compared with just over $2 million for Kerry.]

"So unless he unlocks the Heinz millions," he added, in a reference to the fortune of Teresa Heinz Kerry's late first husband, heir to the Heinz family fortune, "he is unlikely to get anywhere near that figure".

"We must not underestimate the importance of money [in US politics]."

Whether Kerry's interest in the wider world helps him out at home is a more nebulous question, with jobs, the economy and security topping the average US voters' agenda.

How many Americans, for instance, would know or even care that Kerry is a longtime 'Davos junkie'?

"Kerry was one of the few people who went to sessions at Davos just to listen," said a source close to the annual World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, a global meeting of key figures from business, politics and academia who brainstorm on how to improve the state of the world.

"Most participants just go to the sessions where they are confirmed speakers, but he would listen in all over the place - just out of interest."

Kerry, who served in Vietnam and has focused on southeast Asia in Congress, is also a true internationalist, our source added.

"He may come across as this Asia buff, but I think Europe would be a priority for him, to fix what's been broken.

"He's an approachable guy, his office in Washington is amazing. There's this whole wall full of photos of John Kerry in all these different situations, like 'John Kerry with the Dalai Lama'he knows all these different people and places, because he's actually been there. He cares about the world and he understands the world."

Article considers how success for John Kerry in the US presidential race will affect relations between the US and Europe.