Bulgaria, Romania and the EU: In the waiting room

Date: 01/11/03

Problems for two applicants hoping to join the European Union

A BALKAN fairy tale unfolded in 2001 when an exiled child-king of Bulgaria, Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, returned home in middle age and promised to solve all his country's problems in 800 days, if only his countrymen would elect him prime minister. They did so, handsomely. And, inevitably, disillusion has followed.

The king has not yet turned into a frog, but his political party almost croaked at local elections across the country on October 26th. The “National Movement Simeon-II” finished third behind the Socialist Party and the right-wing United Democratic Forces (UDF). It won a mere 11% of the vote, against 43% in the general election of 2001. At least half the electorate chose not to vote at all. The main local contest, for mayor of Sofia, will be decided in a run-off on November 2nd between the incumbent, Stefan Sofiyanski, a centre-rightist, and Stoyan Alexandrov, a Socialist.

If there is any comfort here for Simeon, it is that Bulgaria's voters are so hard to please. To make way for the ex-king in 2001, they threw out a UDF government that had just rescued the country from financial collapse. Simeon inherited an improving economy that he has managed quite well, mainly thanks to his clever young finance minister, Milen Velchev. The country is still poor, but its economy is growing by a steady annual 5% or so. In July the IMF called Bulgaria's performance “excellent”, though it worried that the government's falling popularity was sapping its will to continue reforms.

It is to Simeon's credit, too, that he was there in 2001 to take power, and went on to hold it in a relatively innocuous manner. He gave voters who had lost patience with the UDF's austerity programme a means to reject that government without reinstating the Socialists who had been responsible for ruining the economy in the first place.

His government has also brought Bulgaria closer to joining the European Union in 2007, an ambition it shares with neighbouring Romania. Last year the European Commission declared Bulgaria to be a “functioning market economy”, a precondition for entry. It has yet to give Romania the same status, and may not do so when it publishes its annual progress reports on the candidate countries next week.

Romania and Bulgaria are anxious to receive good opinions, as a signal that they are on course to complete their entry negotiations next year, and to join the EU in 2007. Although Bulgaria has been dragging its feet over some reforms, the commission is likely to reserve its most serious criticisms for Romania. Last year's progress report found shortcomings in the judicial system and the public administration that Romania has done little to correct. The recent resignation of three ministers has probably done more to highlight than to eradicate the corruption and nepotism that are almost universal in the country's public sector.

But any pleasure Bulgaria takes in doing better than its neighbour will be offset by worry that slower progress in Romania could hold both countries back. EU governments, struggling to accommodate ten new countries next year, may grasp at any reason to postpone the next round of enlargement, perhaps until 2010. Arguing for the EU to admit Bulgaria sooner may be ex-king Simeon's last service to his voters.