Blame game leaves little room for compromise over Cyprus reunification

Date: 04/03/04

If, as appears likely, the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders are unable to forge a workable deal before the United Nations' 22 March deadline, the "mother countries" will intervene, with the assistance of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, reports David Cronin

APPORTIONING blame is quite a popular pastime in Cyprus. Talk to a Turkish Cypriot politician and, more than likely, he will cite violence perpetrated against his community by Greek Cypriots in the 1960s as being the root of the island's problems.

Talk to a Greek Cypriot, however, and more than likely you will be told about how Turkish troops forced his kinfolk from their homes in the 1974 invasion.

With a sense of victimhood seemingly burrowed into the Cypriot psyche, it comes as little surprise that each side blames the other for the current impasse in UN-sponsored talks aimed at reuniting the country before it joins the EU on 1 May.

The deadlock arose last week after Rauf Denktash, the veteran Turkish Cypriot leader, presented an eight-page document which seeks revisions to the blueprint for Cyprus signed by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

According to Turkish Cypriot sources, the crunch issue in Denktash's proposal related to the 48-member Senate, which Annan envisages as being a joint institution for the two main communities post-reunification.

Initially, it is foreseen that each side would have the same number of representatives in the body. However, Denktash is concerned about how the number of Turkish Cypriot members could diminish once Greek Cypriot voters move to the Turkish-occupied north of the island to reclaim properties seized from them or their families in 1974.

In order to avoid that situation, Denktash wants a system in which Greek Cypriots would be required to vote for Greek Cypriot candidates and Turkish Cypriots for Turkish Cypriot candidates, regardless of where they live on the island.

After asking for time to peruse these proposals, the Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos rejected them, drawing a predictably angry response from Denktash's supporters. As one said: "It seems to me that Mr Papadopoulos takes the view that the southern republic of Cyprus will enter the EU on 1 May come hell or high water. This is an old Cypriot time-wasting game. There is lots of paperwork being generated but no give and take."

Not surprisingly, Papadopoulos had a different perspective. He accused Denktash of trying to "erode and downgrade the procedure of the talks into an exchange of extreme positions", adding that his rival was trying to raise issues that were "outside the framework" of the Annan plan.

At the time of writing, it appears inevitable the current round of talks will end without an agreement - just as the previous round did in The Hague almost a year ago.

But the lack of a breakthrough need not be catastrophic. For it has already been decided that if Papadopoulos and Denktash cannot thrash out an accord between themselves by 22 March, the two "mother countries", Greece and Turkey, will intervene.

If a stalemate still remains, then, on 29 March, Annan would be authorized to "fill in the blanks" and put a deal forward, which would be subject to simultaneous referenda in both parts of Cyprus in April.

There is speculation that Annan wishes to pursue a strategy which gives the same number of concessions to each side, while retaining the main planks of the blueprint he has already tabled. So while it would still be foreseen that Cyprus will consist of two states linked with common institutions in Nicosia, there could be a further gesture made towards having the international community view the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, currently only recognized by Ankara, as a legitimate state.

To assuage Greek Cypriot sensitivities, then, he could propose that the community's larger share of the population would be reflected in the composition of the presidential council - which would hold executive power in the new federation. However, it appears both sides would retain a veto in this council.

"There can be many crises between now and 22 March," says Demir Murat Seyrek, Brussels spokesman for Turkish think-tank the ARI Movement. "But nobody really cares about them. The fact is that it will be better for the mother countries to give concessions because then Denktash and Papadopoulos do not have to take responsibility for them."

Nevertheless, there is still the possibility that voters from one side could spurn an accord in the referendum.

Recent opinion polls for two Greek Cypriot newspapers suggest it will flounder in the south. Simerini, a paper opposed to the Annan plan, found 61% of Greek Cypriots were against it, 27% in favour and 12% unsure. Politis, which supports the plan, found 40% of respondents opposed, 31% in favour and 29% in the "don't know" camp.

Pundits have suggested that one particular fear among Greek Cypriots is that their taxes will rise so that the costs of reunification can be met. (The European Commission has stated that an international donors' conference would be organized to bankroll at least some of these costs.)

Another apparent factor behind the lack of enthusiasm is how some of the largest political parties have not given a clear indication of whether they will campaign for a "Yes" vote.

For example, the two main opposition groupings AKEL and DISY are playing their cards close to their chests.

In an attempt to give a fresh impetus to the dialogue, the US State Department's special coordinator for Cyprus flew there last weekend to sound a cautiously optimistic note.

Thomas Weston has said that the prospective involvement of Ankara, Athens and Annan means the "possibilities of getting a settlement are enhanced geometrically" so the question "now becomes whether the people of Cyprus will assume their historic responsibilities in voting "Yes" for the settlement".

"My own view, knowing the people of Cyprus, both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot, is that they would assume a historic responsibility and react in a positive way," Weston added.