Solana and Co. jittery over latest signs of instability in powder-keg Balkan states

Date: 26/02/04

THE cliché of the Balkans being Europe's powder keg appears to have been reinforced in the past few weeks.

Thousands have taken to the streets of Tirana urging the resignation of Albania's premier Fatos Nano, who faces charges of corruption and failing to deal with the country's economic woes.

This protest has been Albania's largest in seven years and comes amid growing unrest due to high unemployment and increases in the cost of living.

And in Serbia, Prime Minister designate Vojislav Kostunica is forming a minority government, which will depend on the support of the ultra-nationalist Socialists; with a sense of deep irony, this is the party of Slobodan Milosevic, the despot that Kostunica helped to oust in 2000.

Top EU figures have done little to conceal just how jittery the recent developments make them feel.

Javier Solana, the high representative for foreign affairs, has been trying to encourage the anti-Milosevic parties in Serbia to settle their differences and form a coalition that will not depend upon the Socialists for its survival.

Such a move has been scuppered by the Democratic Party of assassinated premier Zoran Djindjic, which has refused to join forces with Kostunica.

By doing business with Milosevic's allies, Solana has said, Kostunica "is not going to help very much the political and economic relationship [of Serbia] with the international community".

According to one of the parties that has agreed to join the coalition - G17 Plus (a group of economists turned politicians) - Solana's misgivings may not be well founded.

"I think when Mr Solana sees what the government does, he will see no reason for worrying," said a party spokeswoman. "What we're going to try is everything that Serbia needs to do in order to join the European Union. The continuation of economic reform will definitely be the priority of the new government as we want to have a better climate for foreign investments."

As well as the economic reforms, the EU side has made full-scale cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) a precondition for Serbia to advance its bid for joining the Union.

While the Socialists have stated they will only endorse a minority government if Belgrade ceases extraditing indicted war criminals to The Hague, for trial, G17 Plus again feels fears of ceasing to do business with the tribunal are exaggerated.

Its spokeswoman points out that Serbia has already passed a law, now on its national statute books, providing for cooperation with The Hague.

The issue is highly sensitive for Serbia's links with the West. On 12 February Carla del Ponte, ICTY's chief prosecutor, claimed Belgrade had become "a safe haven for our fugitives".

A total of 16 indicted war criminals are believed to be living in the Serbian capital, including Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb leader who oversaw a genocidal campaign against Muslims during the 1990s.

The US is threatening to withdraw a promise of a €80 million aid package to Belgrade unless it hands over Karadzic. Meanwhile, NATO's Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer insisted earlier this month that Serbia will only be able to realize its goal of forming closer links with the Alliance (Belgrade has applied to join its Partnership for Peace programme) once Karadzic is his neighbour. (The Dutchman lives a short distance from The Hague tribunal.)

Judy Batt, a Balkans specialist with the EU Institute for Security Studies in Paris, indicates that, irrespective of whom he relies on for support, Kostunica is himself reluctant to honour his commitments to The Hague.

"Kostunica may find it useful that he can't deliver the war criminals because this would bring the government down - although I suspect Kostunica is not that keen on doing that anyway," she says.

Despite his deal with the Socialists, the possibility emerged over the past week that Kostunica could be able to forge an alliance with the Democratic Party in the near future. In an apparent bid by reformist elements in the party to end its alleged association with organized crime figures, it chose Boris Tadic as a new leader, replacing outgoing premier Zoran Zivkovic. Tadic, now the defence minister in the Serbia-Montenegro federal government, is well regarded in the West, especially since he has made some headway in shaking up the armed forces.

According to Batt, the reliance on the Socialists does not necessarily spell disaster. An attempt by Milosevic to dictate from his prison cell which candidates should fill seats in the national parliament was rejected by leading figures in the party. "We should wait and see," she says. "It's not inconceivable the Socialists will want to reinvent themselves as a legitimate party of the Left."

Batt also suggests the EU's desire to get all parties with democratic credentials into the government may be myopic. Unless a democratic party holds the government accountable from the opposition benches, there is a risk that wavering voters will flock in increasing numbers to extremists. The ultra-right Radical Party of Vojislav Seselj - another Hague indictee - managed to capitalize on the widespread disaffection, particularly among poor, elderly and rural voters, in the December poll, when it won 28% of the vote.

Overall, Batt recommends that the Union should rethink its strategy towards the Balkans. Solana was instrumental in 2002 in securing an agreement on having Serbia and Montenegro as a single state, warning that "further fragmentation" in the region should be avoided.

However, the two countries lack many of the usual traits of a federation. They don't even have a single currency - Serbia uses the dinar, Montenegro the euro.

In Batt's view, the EU's insistence that the two countries negotiate as an entity in forging closer trade ties means they are not concentrating enough on more pressing issues, such as economic reform and restructuring of the judiciary.

Meanwhile, preparations are still under way for NATO to hand over control of its peacekeeping operations in neighbouring Bosnia to the EU later this year.

The Union's policymakers are eager to assume responsibility for this operation in order to prove the EU can manage complex military operations - after doing so, without major hiccups, in Macedonia and Congo.

By taking charge of the 11,900-strong Stabilization Force in Bosnia, the EU would be conducting its biggest defence mission yet.

But de Hoop Scheffer has made it clear he does not envisage NATO completely severing its ties with the force for some time.

The Alliance is set to keep a slimmed-down team in Sarajevo, to assist the government with reform of the country's army, with a view to eventually integrating it, at least partly, into NATO's structures.

Doug Bereuter, the US Congressman who chairs the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, has also stated he expects the Alliance to keep some form of a headquarters in Sarajevo (at present, its headquarters has 350 personnel). Bereuter believes this office could focus on the hunt for the notorious war criminals.

Analysis feature on problems in various countries in the Balkans, and their relations with NATO and the EU.