Turkey and its Kurds. Back to bloodshed?

Date: 15/02/03

As war drums roll nearby, will violence between Turks and Kurds resume?

WHATEVER has happened to Abdullah Ocalan, the Kurdish rebel leader who was captured in 1999 and has been held in a Turkish island prison for the past three years? His lawyers and family say they have been out of touch for more than 11 weeks. Why so? One possibility is that his isolation could presage a resumption of fighting between Turks and Kurds.

One of Mr Ocalan's lawyers says that he and his colleagues have been denied access to the Kurdish leader since November 27th, the day before Turkey's new government, led by the conservative Justice and Development party, won the parliamentary vote of confidence that secured its place in power. Mr Ocalan's disciples in his separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party, better known as the PKK, have said that his isolation must end by February 15th or their guerrillas may resume their campaign of violence not just in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish south-eastern provinces but across the entire country. Several hundred Kurds have been arrested for protesting against Mr Ocalan's plight.

Since his capture, a rebel ceasefire has largely held. But sporadic clashes have recently begun to occur. In the worst incident, seven Turkish soldiers and 12 rebels were killed last month in Lice, in the country's south-east. Sensing that Iraq may be attacked soon, some Kurds may think they have a chance to benefit from the chaos that may ensue. And Turkey's generals may think they should take pre-emptive action against Kurds preparing to rise up.

As for Mr Ocalan, the Turkish authorities say he is perfectly well. They explain that his relations and lawyers have been unable to visit him only because of bad weather. That, say the lawyers, is rubbish.

Mr Ocalan, who founded the PKK, led a violent 15-year campaign for independence for Turkey's 12m or so Kurds, until he was nabbed by Turkish special forces in Kenya. After being sentenced to be hanged for treason, he abandoned demands for Kurdish independence as the price for saving his life. He called on his men to stop fighting and told them to withdraw to Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq, where about 5,000 PKK fighters have since remained. His sentence was commuted to life imprisonment after Turkey's parliament abolished the death penalty last year to boost the country's efforts to join the EU.

The Turkish government may be isolating Mr Ocalan in order to disrupt communication (via his lawyers and family) with his fighters, who apparently still obey his every word. As part of a proposed deal between Turkey and the Americans, Turkish forces are poised to enter northern Iraq if a war begins, while thousands of American troops using Turkey as their base will open a second front against Saddam Hussein's forces. In addition, the Turks will try to prevent an influx of Kurdish refugees from Iraq. They are adamantly opposed to the Kurds having their own state - in Iraq or anywhere else. In other words, while keeping Mr Ocalan out of touch with his people, the Turks may be tempted to give the PKK another bashing.