The Netherlands election. Labour returns from the dead

Date: 18/01/03

The then-dominant party was smashed last year. A new leader is reviving it

THE name is Wouter Bos. He's a miracle-worker. He brings political parties back from the (almost) dead.

His own Labour Party, at least. From 1994, it ruled under the fatherly Wim Kok, in a “purple” coalition with (mainly) the free-market Liberals. Then, last winter, an earthquake hit: Pim Fortuyn, a populist who told voters the country had too many immigrants, too much crime and too many politicians who never listened to ordinary people on such topics or anything else.

In March, a local group led by Mr Fortuyn broke Labour's hold on Rotterdam. In May's general election, his new national party (aided by revulsion at his murder a few days before) took 26 seats in the 150-strong lower house, while Labour, under a new, uncharismatic leader, crashed from 45 to 23. In came a coalition led by the Christian Democrats, who had gained strongly, with the Liberals and the Fortuynists. Labour lay shattered in the mire.

Some recovery was natural. Labour's new leader had quit at once. Then, under a party chairman already elected in 2001 against Mr Kok's preferences, Labour set out to rethink its attitudes to the voters and so to the issues raised by Fortuyn. The new government meanwhile was stumbling, as the Fortuynists quarrelled among themselves and all three allies with each other. In October, it collapsed. Even so, few foresaw more than a modest revival for Labour in the election called for January 22nd.

Today, opinion polls put Labour on the Christian Democrats' heels; just ahead, says one. Last week's issue was whether the outgoing prime minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, would aim for a new coalition with the Liberals (as he would prefer) or with rapidly rising Labour. This week, the media were asking who is Labour's candidate for the prime ministership itself.

How come? The short answer is Mr Bos, leader since November of Labour's election list. A former Shell manager, he entered parliament, aged 34, only in 1998, becoming a junior minister in 2000 at finance, under today's Liberal leader, Gerrit Zalm. But it is not only his face that is new. He won first place on the party list in a true internal election, a novelty for Labour. He has charisma, but modesty too. He listens to the voters, and has swung Labour their way, notably on crime and immigration.

The Fortuynists' disarray has cut their own throats (they may get half a dozen seats, say pollsters). But Mr Bos has twisted the knife. When he went on the stump in one of Rotterdam's most Fortuynist areas, it was plain that working-class voters were swinging back to Labour in droves.

The long answer is more complex. By Dutch standards, this has been a snap election, even more than usual dominated by the instant effects of television. Dutch politicians, unlike some, are happy to debate with each other on the box, and in the early debates Mr Bos did notably better than Mr Balkenende. Labour's poll ratings swiftly shot up; it owes as much to the medium as the man or his message.

But the message has mattered too. Most parties, reflecting public opinion, have stolen the Fortuynists' clothes, if not on immigration as such, on the need to integrate the newcomers with society. But there are other, and growing, public concerns.

The economy is one; the Dutch have done well so far, but the outlook is grey. Health care is another. It is short of cash. So encourage private medicine? And/or ram up premiums to the public system - and if so, leave these the same for all, with mere promises of aid for poor families, as is now being done? Or link premiums overtly to income? Schools: leave them, as many now have to, to supplement state funds with “voluntary” contributions from parents? The sums are small to a middle-class family; they hurt a poor one with four kids.

On these and other issues, Mr Bos, once on Labour's right, has been talking more left of late. Some figures suggest why. Was there really a rush to the right last May, as outsiders supposed? No: the Liberals lost nearly as badly as Labour. Who did well? The Fortuynists and Christian Democrats, yes, but also the tiny Socialist Party. From five seats it rose to nine. Polls say it may now reach 14-plus. Maybe not. But free-marketry has not triumphed yet.

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