Expanding the European Union: Two down, eight to go

Date: 29/03/03

The European Union's unopposed advance on a wave of referendums

SLOVENIA became the second of ten countries lined up to join the European Union in 2004 when, on March 23rd, it voted in favour of membership. Almost 90% of those who voted said yes. Nobody had expected the Slovenes to say no. All the same, the tally in favour of joining has pleasantly surprised the EU's people in Brussels. Perhaps more surprisingly, given the unpopularity of the war in Iraq, some 66% of Slovenia's voters (the total population is 2m) also voted to join NATO.

The Maltese vote on March 8th had been heralded as a much tenser affair. Despite its tiny population - 400,000, even smaller than Luxembourg's - its vote mattered even more to the EU than Slovenia's. Not only was it the first of the referendums to be held this year in candidate countries; it was probably the vote most in doubt.

Pollsters in Poland and Hungary have been saying that their no camps may be larger than current surveys suggest: many voters are apparently embarrassed to oppose EU accession openly, just as they are often shy of admitting that they may vote for racist or ultra-nationalist parties. But most pollsters nonetheless reckon that the margins in favour of joining - and the yes votes in the referendums that have taken place - are large enough to suggest that there will be no surprises in store.

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