Back into the fold

Date: 14/06/03

To make its voice heard when it joins the European Union next year, Poland must first reinvigorate itself at home

THE Poles proved bolder than the polls had suggested. In a two-day referendum on June 7th and 8th, they voted 77% in favour of joining the European Union next year, and with a respectable turnout of 59%, comfortably above the 50% threshold needed to make the referendum binding.

The Czechs vote on June 13th and 14th. Estonia and Latvia follow in September. Barring a last-minute hitch, that should clear the way for the EU's expansion into central Europe on May 1st next year, adding eight members there plus the Mediterranean islands of Cyprus and Malta.

Until last week the big question overhanging Poland's EU accession was whether enough people would vote to make the referendum valid. Now, attention shifts to how Poland will behave once inside the Union. Its population of almost 40m will dwarf those of the other new members and most of the old ones too. In an enlarged EU of 25 countries, only Britain, France, Germany and Italy will have more votes in the Council of Ministers, the main legislative body. For better or worse, Poland will make its presence felt.

It has done so already in the five-year-long accession negotiations, talking at times as though it was doing the EU a favour by joining. Heather Grabbe, of the Centre for European Reform, a British think-tank, sees problems ahead if Poland goes into the Union with too little long-term strategy and too great an interest in short-term gains. The nightmare scenario, says Ms Grabbe, would be a Poland which was “Spanish on the budget (fighting tooth and nail for every euro), French in defending the common agricultural policy, British in its pro-Americanism, Danish in its Euroscepticism, and Italian in its chaotic public administration.” Poland's politicians and civil servants have a lot more work to do in the coming year, she says, if they are to make their country influential in the EU and not just awkward.

Two things will help decide whether Poland punches above or below its weight in the enlarged EU. The first is the relations it establishes with the leading EU states. The second is the strength and stability of its government at home.

Poland's size and sense of history make it want to be accepted as a “big country” in the EU pecking order, despite its relative poverty. Its diplomats purse their lips at the idea of being expected to hang around with the rest of the new boys. Poland's first choice of mentor and ally in the EU would probably be Germany, its mighty neighbour, despite the lingering memories of Hitler's war, in which some 6m Poles (including 3m Polish Jews) died.

The chances of a serious partnership with Germany looked very slim indeed even a few weeks ago, when Poland was helping the American war effort in Iraq, while Germany and France were angrily opposing it. But relations are becoming more relaxed again. German officials can understand well enough Poland's difficulty in choosing between America and Europe, given Germany's history, at least until recently, of not wishing to make that same choice.

The big spoiler here may be France, Germany's traditional partner in Europe. French reservations about America go much deeper than Germany's, and France is also more openly snooty towards the EU's new members. It will balk at turning the old Franco-German “motor” of the EU into a three-stroke model incorporating Poland, logical as this might be in geopolitical terms after the EU's enlargement. The one thing that might change French attitudes would be fear of a looser alternative alliance developing between Poland, Germany and Britain in pursuit of more liberal policy goals - the combination that most Poles, and perhaps even most Germans, would prefer, if they had to choose.

An early test of Poland's instincts will come when it lends its voice, as a full voting member, to the EU's long-running argument about farm subsidies; the issue was preoccupying the Union's farm ministers again this week, with efforts being renewed to restart world trade talks. Poland's short-term interests lie in seeing payments to its own farmers raised quickly to current EU norms, rather than slowly (by 2013) as the EU insisted last year. This would be a popular “victory” for any Polish government, given the country's 2m farms.

But the EU's agricultural policy, which directs 40% of all EU budget spending towards farm subsidies, is notorious the world over for its wastefulness. Poland and every other EU country would do much better in the long run from a deep reform that directed money towards the balanced development of rural economies and not into the pockets of farmers who happened to be there. The right option for Poland would be to use its votes to help that reform happen. The wrong option would be to follow the past (and apparently present) example of France, as a big beneficiary of the common agricultural policy, in resisting fundamental change.

Back on the home ranch

Whatever Poland's instincts in Europe, its government will be taken seriously there only if it first proves its strength at home. And here the latest news is less good.

Poland's beleaguered prime minister, Leszek Miller, promptly sought to exploit the encouraging referendum outcome by inviting a parliamentary vote of confidence to be held on June 13th. His government commands only a minority in parliament, and has seen its popularity undermined badly by sleaze allegations and a weak economy. Poland's president, Alexander Kwasniewski, an ex-communist like Mr Miller, would clearly prefer a new prime minister with a parliamentary majority. Mr Kwasniewski believes, rightly, that Poland needs a strong government to push through tough budget reforms before EU entry. The World Bank has calculated that Poland's social-security system consumes 20% of GDP and 45% of public spending, one of highest rates in the industrialised world. Public spending in general is badly managed, services are poor, privatisation has languished, and the tax system is riddled with exemptions.

Hopes for fiscal reform and deficit-cutting rested mainly on Mr Miller's finance minister, Grzegorz Kolodko - until he quit on June 11th, outmanoeuvred by his rival, Jerzy Hausner, the economics minister, who wants a looser fiscal policy to stimulate demand. Mr Kolodko's replacement is Andrzej Raczko, a former deputy finance minister. He will have his work cut out, while the government lasts, finding a policy that pleases Mr Hausner, and the EU, and the financial markets too.

To make its voice heard when it joins the European Union next year, Poland must first reinvigorate itself at home.

IFES Election Guide: Homepage http://www.electionguide.org/index.php

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