Germany’s President: No Frau after Rau

Date: 13/09/03

Germany's next federal president is unlikely to be a woman

TIME for a woman. Such has been the reaction across the political spectrum since Johannes Rau, Germany's president, said this week that he would not seek re-election when his term ends next June. A female head of state would continue a trend. Women now make up almost one-third of the federal parliament, against only one-fifth ten years ago. And almost half of Germany's ministers are women.

Quotas are one reason. Except for the Free Democrats, Germany's liberals, all the main political parties now decree that women must have a certain percentage of jobs. The Christian Democrats set the level at 30%, albeit only in the first round of party elections, the Social Democrats at 40% and the Greens at a half.

But most positions of real power - in parliament, government or parties - are still in male hands. Within the federal cabinet, for instance, men run all the “hard” ministries such as foreign affairs, finance and defence, while women have farming, family affairs and health.

Besides, there are other reasons why, this time, a woman is unlikely to become president. Any candidate, male or female, put forward by the Social Democrats has no chance, since the governing “red-Green” coalition lacks a majority in the federal convention, which consists of the members of both federal houses of parliament and an equal number elected by Germany's 16 state parliaments. But the Social Democrats have another reason for calling for a female president: to make life more awkward for Angela Merkel, the Christian Democrats' chairman.

If it were agreed that a woman should be head of state, she would seem to be the right's obvious choice. Not in her view. She would rather her party's presidential candidate were a man, since she wants to become chancellor in 2006. Not surprisingly, quite a few politicians on the right like the idea of Mrs Merkel as president, since that would clear the way for them to have a crack at becoming chancellor.

If Mrs Merkel has her way, the right's front-runners would probably be Wolfgang Schauble, a Christian Democrat, and Edmund Stoiber, if he feels ready for a higher calling after his Christian Social Union, the Christian Democrats' sister party in Bavaria, wins state elections later this month, as is almost certain.

Mrs Merkel's views, which some female politicians have deplored, are entirely reasonable. The job of president is largely ceremonial, though he or she can make some impact by appealing to the nation's conscience - with speeches, for instance, on immigration, biotechnology or the Holocaust, for which Mr Rau memorably apologised in Israel. If politicians are really serious about the Frauenfrage, the question of women in politics, they should open the way for a female chancellor. Whether Mrs Merkel is the right person for that job is for the voters to decide.

Germany's next federal president is unlikely to be a woman.

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