‘Delicate task’ ahead for Irish presidency after Russian vote

By David Cronin

Date: 11/12/03

VLADIMIR Putin has been bolstered on the domestic front by the sweeping victory for his allies in the United Russia party in the Duma elections last Sunday (7 December). But it doesn't follow that Russia's president will find it easier to twist the arm of Western leaders, particularly in his dealings with the EU.

Instead, analysts of Russian politics believe the accession of ten mostly ex-communist states to the Union could slow down the process of drawing Russia closer to the EU. After all, many of the new member states have been eager to nurture deeper ties with western Europe to escape Russia's sphere of influence.

"Before the elections, there was a kind of feeling among Russians that EU enlargement would lead to a cooling of relations," says Nina Bachkatov, editor of website Inside Russia. "The reason is that Europe is likely to become more inward-looking. The new entrants will be trying to protect themselves and not to have too close relations with Russia."

It is even possible that enlargement could lead to a deterioration in ties.

Moscow has lately been making much of the discrimination faced by ethnic Russians in Latvia and Estonia. The European Commission agrees these communities are victims of bias. Its annual monitoring report for Latvia, published last month, gave Riga a mild rebuke for not honouring EU anti-discrimination rules to the letter. More progress, it said, is needed on 'naturalizing' ethnic Russians so that they can enjoy the same rights as Latvian citizens.

Yet EU officials feel that Moscow's protests have been too feverish and that it has not recognized positive developments in the Baltic states, for example in promoting bilingual education.

The officials are perturbed by signals that Russia may not extend its partnership and cooperation agreement with the existing EU states to an enlarged Union due to its concerns over Latvia and Estonia. While the Commission officially maintains the issue is a technical one and that Moscow is duty-bound to automatically extend the agreement, its staff privately fear the potential for increased friction.

According to Nina Bachkatov, Ireland's EU presidency will have a "very delicate" task to perform following what she called the "ridiculous" statements made by Silvio Berlusconi at the EU-Russia summit on 6 November.

The Italian premier was reproached by most EU governments for offering his "services" at the Rome meeting as Putin's "defence lawyer" over Chechnya and the arrest of Yukos oil boss Mikhail Khodorovsky, as well as erroneously claiming that Moldova's government is happy to have 1,500 Russian troops in the separatist Transdniestra.

A well-placed Irish diplomat indicates that Bertie Ahern will not be making the same mistakes. The taoiseach (prime minister) has resolved not to deviate from agreed EU policy of criticizing human rights abuses in Chechnya and pushing for the withdrawal of the troops on Moldovan territory.

But the official says the Irish are also determined to have a "functioning relationship" between the EU and Russia. Dublin is making Russia a priority country for external relations, noting its vital role in a volatile region - as was dramatically illustrated by the recent coup in Georgia.

Dublin has also taken heart from the deal reached by the then Danish presidency in 2002 over travel between Russia's Baltic enclave Kaliningrad and neighbouring Lithuania and Poland, viewing this as a concrete example of how breakthroughs can be achieved on thorny dossiers.

Among the issues the Irish will have to grapple with are Russia's demands that its citizens should be allowed to stay in the EU for up to three months without a visa. While the Commission and many member states regard it as premature to contemplate this idea while controls on Russia's external borders are perceived as inadequate, some EU officials are enthused by the reciprocal nature of what the Russians are proposing. "It would be very nice for us to be able to go to Russia without a visa," says one. "This is not a one-way street."

But one complicating factor is that Ireland, like the UK, remains outside the Schengen zone of passport-free travel. Yet insiders predict that if the issues are handled with sensitivity this should not have a major bearing on the discussions.

A spokesman for Russia's EU embassy says the results of Sunday's elections should not alter the nature of Moscow-Brussels ties.

Russian diplomats have interpreted a European Commission statement on Monday, noting that the elections were conducted in an "orderly manner", as tantamount to its blessing for their fairness. However, the Commission's reaction was qualified - it said it was reserving judgment until monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) had delivered their verdict.

The OSCE has since stated the election was "fundamentally distorted" in favour of United Russia, as the state-funded media had granted the party preferential coverage.

And despite the criticism Berlusconi's remarks have garnered within the EU, Russian diplomats remain unfazed. "We don't see any reasons for changes in relations with the EU," comments one. "Berlusconi did his job as well as any other European leader. No doubt the Irish presidency will do the same."

Major feature looks at the challenges facing EU-Russia relations, particularly in the context of the forthcoming enlargement of the EU.

http://www.eeas.europa.eu/russia/index_en.htm http://www.eeas.europa.eu/russia/index_en.htm

---