Member States can still achieve Kyoto targets, claims Wallström

By Karen Carstens

Date: 04/12/03

WITH latest figures revealing that greenhouse gas emissions are on the rise in Europe, Margot Wallström has urged member states to come up with additional strategies for the EU to reach its Kyoto Protocol target.

But the Swedish environment commissioner, speaking in Brussels on Tuesday (2 December), also insisted that the 1997 climate change treaty was still very much alive.

"The Kyoto Protocol is not dead," she said. "It has just held its breath for a little while because we are all waiting for the Russian ratification."

But a different message came from Moscow on the same day. Andrei Illarionov, an economic advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said the government had decided it will not ratify the Protocol in its present form. "The Kyoto Protocol places significant limitations on the economic growth of Russia," the presidential aide said.

Kyoto will only enter into force once it is ratified by industrialized countries accounting for 55% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Since the US and Australia have turned their backs on Kyoto, only Russian ratification would allow this now.

The situation has led Kyoto's critics to call for it to be scrapped and has cast a cloud over the ninth annual conference of the parties to the UN climate change convention, or COP9, which began on Monday in Milan and concludes on 12 December.

"We are kind of being held hostage to an internal political process here," Wallström admitted, although she was quick to add that she still firmly believes "Russia will ratify".

"[We need to] demonstrate to Russia that if they continue to keep us in uncertainty then they themselves will be hurt." There is "a lot of interest for joint implementation projects in Russia", she said, declaring that "many companies want to invest" in developing advanced, climate-friendly technologies in Russia via Kyoto's so-called "joint implementation" (JI) mechanism.

"This is for their own environmental good. This is something they should not do for us, but for themselves."

But even Russian ratification would not stop climate change. Figures released by the European Commission to coincide with COP9 reveal that, after a steady decline in the 1990s, overall EU greenhouse gas emissions have in recent years been gradually rising again.

In 2001, they were up 1% over the previous year, and 2000 saw a rise of 0.3% over 1999 figures. By contrast, the EU by the late 1990s had reduced its emissions by 4%, halfway to its overall Kyoto target of cutting emissions by 8% between 1990 and 2012.

"Unless additional emissions policies are put in place, the EU as a whole will only reduce its emissions by 0.5% as opposed to meeting its 8% target," Wallström warned.

The trouble lies with carbon dioxide. While emissions of most greenhouse gases are declining, CO2 emissions are on the up. The main culprit, said Wallström, is transport, where emissions have risen 20% over 1990 levels. And she predicted they could rise by 34% by 2010 if transport policies do not change.

The EU's emissions trading system - the lynchpin of its Kyoto strategy - cannot be applied to the transport sector, with its diffuse sources of emissions rather than large, stationary sources of pollution.

A widely praised voluntary initiative between the EU and European car manufacturers to reduce exhaust emissions was still on track, however, and the commissioner said she saw no reason at this stage to move towards binding measures.

Meanwhile, Wallström said she had written to all member states urging them to beef up their own climate change strategies with additional measures.

Only Sweden and the UK will reach their Kyoto targets with existing measures, she cautioned, although the Netherlands were "nearly there" and four other member states were in the process of modifying their policies. The worst performers are Spain, likely to have emissions 30% above its target, and Austria, Belgium and Ireland, each more than 20% above.

With a 2008-2012 timeframe to meet their targets, "any [new] measures will have to be put in place over the next two or three years", she added.

As for COP9, Wallström said it would serve to highlight EU leadership on climate change and its long-term goal of getting developing countries on board, too.

China and India, which plan to make use of vast coal reserves to fuel economic growth in the coming decades, have in particular caused critics to claim that no matter what the EU does to curb its own emissions, global CO2 output is still set to soar.

"China will soon be the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases," Wallström acknowledged, even though the average Chinese citizen's greenhouse gas output was still "six times lower than the average American's".

"This is both the political and the practical challenge for the Kyoto Protocol," she added.

Wallström dismissed critics who accuse the EU of being hypocritical for promoting Kyoto while allowing its own emissions to rise.

"I think we are honest in describing that this will never be easy," she said. "We are still serious about meeting our target. We have done it so far. You cannot compare it with the US, which says that business as usual is fine, with emissions increases of 30% - or even more."

But the EU has no "backup plan" if Kyoto does falter, the Swede admitted.

"There is no "Plan B"," she said, although she was quick to point out the intrinsic value of Kyoto. "This is sound politics that will help make sure that we become more energy efficient, that we look for future technologies the problem of climate change will not go away. Even if some are tempted to declare the Kyoto Protocol dead. The problem is not dead."

Speaking in Brussels on 2 December 2003, Margot Wallström, European Commissioner for the Environment, insisted the Kyoto Protocol was not dead and urged Member States to produce additional strategies for the European Union to reach its Protocol target. However, on the same day the Russian Government announced it would not ratify the Protocol in its present form.

ESO: In Focus: Russia urged to ratify Kyoto Protocol, July 2003 http://www.europeansources.info/record/russia-urged-to-ratify-kyoto-protocol-july-2003/

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