Swedish pro-euro lobby lagging despite huge summer campaign

Date:24/07/03

By Bengt Ljung

THE Swedish euro campaign just cannot get off the ground. As the clock is ticking down relentlessly to the 14 September referendum, the "Yes" side is stuck far behind the eurosceptics and the government is still groping for the right vote-winning arguments.

Despite a massive, well-funded summer campaign in favour of swapping the krona for the euro, recent opinion polls show the lead of the opponents widening to as much as 50% against 30% (a Gallup survey), with the rest undecided.

"I knew it would be tough, but I have no simple answer for what to do," Swedish Prime Minister Göran Persson has confessed.

"We can still win with a lot of hard work, because people really don't make up their minds until two weeks before the vote," he added hopefully.

The prospects looked rosy when the Social Democratic premier gambled on calling a referendum last year. A majority of Swedes then favoured the euro after the successful introduction of notes and coins in the 12 eurozone countries. But soon after the announcement, the mood of the average Sven and Ingrid darkened. And the krona-lovers have stayed ahead ever since.

On paper, the "Yes" side musters the strongest line-up, with most of business and an overwhelming majority in parliament. But, importantly, all political parties are divided, and the dominant Social Democrats are bitterly split.

In the spring, Persson scored a damaging own-goal when he gagged several of his own ministers to stop them campaigning against the government line. It looked like he had something to hide, suspicious Swedes thought.

Their sceptical gut feeling may spring from a touch of national pride, a dash of establishment-bashing, and equal pinches of fear of losing sovereignty and precious pieces of the welfare state.

Statistically, opponents are typically women, employed in the public sector, living in small towns or in the countryside, and with an educational level below average. Their question is: "Why change?" The burden of proof is placed on the euro advocates.

Göran Persson has tried to tempt his grass roots with down-to-earth promises of lower mortgage rates for home owners and 108,000 new state jobs. But who can be certain of economic forecasts?

The government's earlier self-praise has also boomeranged. If the Swedish economy is so strong compared to most of Europe, why change? And isn't Germany suffering because of the euro? German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer was quickly flown in to explain that Germany's economic woes began with reunification and a lack of structural reforms.

On a more academic level, campaigners hit each other on a daily basis with contrasting arguments about whether growth, trade, jobs and price levels will be hurt or helped by Sweden becoming the 13th euro state.

Swedish Environment Commissioner Margot Wallström puts political reasons first - to be a full EU member. She will spend part of her August vacation campaigning for membership.

"It's a question of how Swedes look at European cooperation and Sweden's role in it. There is still a great scepticism among the population," she admitted recently.

Despite a government campaign in favour of the euro ahead of the referendum on 14 September 2003 the Swedish government fears that the 'Eurosceptics' still outnumber those pro the single currency.