Reunification beckons as leaders sign upfor a Europe “whole and free”

Date: 10/04/03

But it is the millions of citizens from the ten prospective EU countries who are likely to have the final say in referenda, writes David Cronin

THE Acropolis will be the backdrop for an event rich in symbolism when EU leaders sign the Accession Treaty in Athens next Wednesday (16 April).

There could surely be no more apt setting for the historic reunification of the European continent - "whole and free" - than the ancient cradle of democracy.

Champagne - and perhaps a little ouzo - will be imbibed as the leaders set in train one of the final stages in a tortuous process which should result in eight former communist countries of central and eastern Europe, as well as two Mediterranean states, joining the Union in 2004. In most cases, however, it will be the 75 million citizens of the prospective future member states who will have the final say on whether they join the club.

Cyprus

The second smallest candidate country covers an area of less than 10,000 square kilometres and has a population of just 750,000.

However, as a long-running source of tension between Greece and Turkey, its geopolitical significance is out of all proportion to its size. The British military also maintains two strategically important bases on the island, which act as Middle East "listening posts".

United Nations' officials have spent 18 months trying to secure a deal that would pave the way for both the Greek and Turkish communities to join the EU. So far the efforts have come to nought, with talks between Rauf Denktash, the Turkish Cypriot leader, and Tassos Papadopoulos, president of the Greek Cypriot south, collapsing in the Hague last month.

In a new move, apparently aimed at rescuing the situation, Denktash wrote to Papadopoulos on 2 April. He suggested that Varosha, a largely deserted town under Turkish Cypriot control, would be returned to the Greek Cypriots. In return, he proposed that the latter would lift their trade embargo on the Turkish occupied north. He also called for the creation of a "reconciliation committee" to foster greater tolerance between the communities.

The Cyprus Mail encapsulated the Greek Cypriot administration's view of this apparent olive branch, branding it a "PR stunt". George Iacovou, the foreign minister in Papadopoulos' government, accused Denktash of "ostracising" the UN: "He offers no discussion for a political settlement, he tries to sidetrack the question of finding a solution to the problem," the minister remarked.

Any settlement ahead of next week's signing ceremony seems highly improbable. Provisions had been made for amending the treaty at the last minute in case of a breakthrough, but more than likely these won't now be required.

EU leaders agreed at Helsinki in 1999 that a settlement was not a prerequisite for Cyprus' EU entry. Yet admitting a divided island could have severe repercussions. Günter Verheugen, the commissioner responsibe for enlargement, has warned that it would be difficult to invite Turkey to begin formal talks on joining the EU if Ankara continues with its policy of non-recognition of "Greek" Cyprus after it becomes a member state.

Poland

With 39 million inhabitants, Poland is by far the biggest of the central and eastern European states striving for EU entry. Guy Verhofstadt, the Belgian premier, has gone so far as to say that enlargement without the Poles would be unthinkable.

But the mood in Poland is volatile and was not helped by French President Jacques Chirac's comment that prospective member states supporting the US-led action in Iraq policy should "shut up". His remarks caused deep resentment in Poland.

Agricultural leader Wladyslaw Serafin, although a pro-EU advocate, indicated in February that he would not bother recommending how the country's massive rural community should vote in the referendum unless Chirac said sorry. No apology has been forthcoming and aides to Serafin now pass off his threat as a joke.

Joke or not, Agriculture Commissioner Franz Fischler has devoted considerable effort to convincing the country's two million farmers, who comprise 19% of the workforce, that being in the EU is in their best interests. "Poland's farmers will profit from the market opportunities that an internal market of almost half a billion consumers offers," he declared last week. Closer bilateral links have already paid dividends, he added, pointing out that the amount of farm produce the EU-15 imported from Poland rose by nearly 24% in 2001.

But the authority of Leszek Miller's government has been weakened recently both through the departure of the agrarian Peasants' Party from the ruling coalition and a bribery scandal implicating members of the prime minister's Democratic Left Alliance (SLD).

The Central European Research Group has calculated that 69% of Polish voters are planning to vote "Yes" on 8 June (the possibility of extending the vote to a second day is being considered), with 21% planning to say "No" and 10% not decided. The support level is slightly down on a survey published two months ago but up by 8% on the findings of the Eurobarometer survey last November. The turnout could prove to be of vital importance. If it is under 50%, a majority in both houses of parliament would have to approve the treaty for it to be ratified.

One fascinating aside is that the Warsaw administration is trying to impress the importance of the vote on the thousands of Poles who live in Chicago (often referred to as Poland's second city). The government is due to send a number of representatives to rally support from stateside Poles between now and June. Around 10,000 Poles in the "Windy City" cast ballots in the country's last election.

Czech Republic

Efforts to convince Czechs to support membership received a boost last week when new-ish President Vaclav Klaus, widely considered a Eurosceptic (he prefers the term "Euro-realist"), emphatically called for a "Yes" vote in its referendum on 15-16 June.

"We will have a bigger chance of influencing the EU as its members from inside than as its non-members from outside," declared Klaus. He said the campaign debate should avoid hyperbole and concentrate on "real information" rather than propaganda about the Union.

An opinion poll this month by the TNS Factum agency concluded that 75% will vote "Yes", with a turnout of around 70%. If the findings are accurate, this marks a huge upswing in support. A Eurobarometer poll in November 2002 found that 50% would vote for membership; even last month that figure stood at only 59%.

However, worries are being expressed about the possible fall-out of instability affecting the three-party government coalition headed by Vladimir Spidla. The prime minister is understood to be stalling on introducing austerity measures to tackle a ballooning budget deficit until after the referendum.

Recent infighting among his Social Democrat party sparked so much concern in Brussels that Commissioner Verheugen attended their national conference to try and persuade the party faithful not to be distracted from the referendum campaign.

Among the most vocal advocates of a "No" vote is the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia, which has recently enjoyed a surge in popularity. It claims it is not opposed to the Union per se but believes the Czech Republic will not be treated equally to existing member states. The government responded by levelling accusations at the communists of trying to turn the country into "Europe's Cuba".

Estonia

With its referendum not due until 14 September, the campaign is yet to get into full swing in this Baltic state. Unlike most other candidate states, the results of the poll will not be binding on the government.

For the past month, politicians have been too preoccupied with the formation of a new government to engage in much debate about the country's membership bid. The talks following the 2 March general election recently culminated with the centre-right Reform Party and "business-friendly" Res Publica forming a three-way coalition with the smaller People's Union.

At the first session of the newly constituted parliament, the Riigikogu, President Arnold Rüütel pleaded for plenty of reflection before the autumn vote. "It is very important that prior to that an active debate on the future of Estonia should take place and the experience of history and our options should also be analysed with full responsibility."

Opinion polls put those in favour of joining at 57%, up from 39% in November's Eurobarometer findings.

Hungary

Barring an unforeseen setback, Hungary's membership should be copper-fastened by the referendum this Saturday (12 April).

Despite being at loggerheads on Iraq and previous differences over EU policy, the main government and opposition parties have shown a unity of purpose lately in urging a "Yes" vote. This should bear fruit. A poll published on 3 April by the Central European Research Group (CEORG) put support for the EU among Hungarian voters at 69% and opposition at just 17%. That "Yes" tally appears lower than findings unveiled by the Tarki Social Research Institute in March, but with the margin between the "Yes" and "No" sides so wide there is hardly any cause for panic in Budapest or Brussels.

Prime Minister Péter Medgyessy plans to milk the historical significance of the Athens ceremony for all it is worth. He has invited two of his predecessors, Viktor Orbán and Gyula Horn, to accompany him to the Greek capital to witness the treaty signing.

Latvia

Like neighbouring Estonia, Latvia won't be holding its referendum for another five months or so (polling day is 20 September).

While it is still early days, it is within the realms of possibility that Latvia (population 2.4 million) could produce an upset. Anti-EU sentiment is quite strong: having lived under the Soviet yoke for decades, many Latvians are concerned that joining the EU could undermine their identity.

Moreover, its senior politicians have seen their personal ratings tumble - largely due to their backing of America's assault on Iraq. President Varia Vike-Freiberga, for example, has seen her personal approval rating plunge from 70% in January to 46% in March, according to the Latvijas Fakti agency. However, the same firm puts support for joining the EU at 48%, compared to 33% for those opposed.

A few troubling signals notwithstanding, three political parties launched virtually simultaneous pro-EU referendum campaigns at the end of March. There has been keen interest in the discussion gripping the future of Europe Convention on the possibility of an "exit clause" allowing countries to leave the EU. Some members of the national parliament, the Saeima, are examining if the country's constitution can be amended to allow this to happen if membership of the Union brings disappointment.

Lithuania

Vilnius-based broadcaster LNK pointed out recently that the Lithuanian government has a campaign budget of around only €1 million for the referendum - considerably less than its counterparts in Estonia and Latvia.

Despite such an impecunious situation, the 10-11 May referendum should be carried. Some polls indicate the "Yes" vote could be around the 70% mark, with opposition at only 10%.

There is a complicating factor however: a 50% turnout of voters is needed for the result to be binding.

Reports have appeared in the Lithuanian media lately about discrepancies between the number of registered voters and those who can actually go to the polls.

According to polling agency Vilmorus, the former figure may exceed the latter by 500,000. The gap has been partly attributed to significant levels of migration and failure to notify the authorities by the people involved.

The Central Electoral Commission has been given until 21 April to finalise the list of eligible voters.

The country's farm lobby has been in the vanguard of pro-accession canvassing. Even though the Lithuanian Chamber of Agriculture has previously threatened mass protests if the government failed to win more subsidies from Brussels, its President Jonas Ramonas now contends there is no viable alternative.

"Otherwise, we would remain an isolated state," he told the Lieutvas Rytas newspaper.

Malta

In theory, Malta's place in the Union is assured. Some 53.6% of voters supported membership in its 8 March referendum, with 46.4% opposing. The snag is that the poll is effectively being re-run. The opposition Labour Party, led by Alfred Sant, is promising to rip up the referendum result if it wins a general election this Saturday (12 April).

Labour is citing concerns that the perceived "militarisation" of the EU - the Union has just taken command of its first ever military mission, Operation Concordia in Macedonia - will whittle away the national policy of neutrality. It insists that Malta, the smallest prospective member state, should have little more than a trading pact with the Union's members.

Slovakia

The Slovaks are among the most ardent EU enthusiasts in central and eastern Europe. CEORG calculates 82% are set to vote "Yes" on 16-17 May and that turnout should be more than 70% (Slovakia has broadly the same requirements for the referendum to be valid as Poland).

The government's campaign, though, has got off to a somewhat sluggish start. So much so that there were reports that the European Commission's Bratislava office felt last month that Mikulas Dzurinda's administration was ill-prepared.

The cabinet appears to be determined to escape further criticism. Deputy Prime Minister Pal Csaky is even seeking around €500,000 so that the referendum campaign can be extended until 30 April 2004. The government has accepted the idea that it should keep on addressing public concerns about the impact of membership, especially on such thorny issues as fears of price rises, drops in farm income and increased joblessness after Slovaks, it hopes, vote "Yes".

Slovenia

The ex-Yugoslav state has already said "Yes". Nearly 90% of Slovene voters supported membership in a referendum held on 23 March.

Major feature discussing the views of citizens in the ten prospective Member States planning to join the EU in 2004.