Size matters

Date: 14/11/02

THE European Commission is under pressure to rethink its future composition amid concerns that the present system, under which each member state has at least one commissioner, would hinder the College's performance in an enlarged Union.

Commission President Romano Prodi and his colleagues are trying to reach agreement on whether their successors will work as a 'large' Commission of 27 members or as a restraint College of 12-16.

The scenario they opt for will be a key part of a paper, which will be unveiled on 5 December. The paper, which will recommend changes to the EU's institutional set-up, was set to be adopted this Monday, but the commmissioners postponed it.

Insiders say Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, chairman of the Convention on the future of the EU, made clear that he would prefer that the paper be presented to the Convention's plenary, which next convenes on 5 December.

Giscard urged the commissioners to reconsider not only the College's powers but also its composition.

During a meeting with Prodi and his team last Wednesday (6 November), the former French president warned that measures needed to be taken to counter the 'effect of the number' on the institution.

He also alerted the commissioners to a latent political problem: in a Commission where each country has one representative, the large countries will be in a minority.

In the original community of six states, France, Germany and Italy had two commissioners each and, therefore, twice as many votes as the three smaller Benelux members - the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, who each had one. Successive enlargements have brought more smaller states into the Union and shifted the balance of power: now, ten commissioners represent the five large states, with ten representing the smaller EU countries.

But, at 27, only six commissioners would come from large states. This would be an unacceptable erosion of large states' power, Giscard suggested.

Insiders say Giscard favours a smaller Commission, with the consequence that not all countries could appoint a commissioner. This is likely to irk the small states, who fear a loss of influence.

However, some form of reshuffling is inevitable if the Commission is to achieve its stated aim of winning more power.

An official close to Romano Prodi told European Voice a majority of commissioners prefer the large Commission scenario. However, the small and large states should not be equal, he suggested, although each would have a commissioner.

'If we follow the logic that the Commission represents the Community interest, and not the member states, we do not need to have one commissioner per country: we would have just as many as we need,' another Commission insider said.

'Another institution, the Council, represents the states. But if small states want to follow the logic of one commissioner per country, this means commissioners represent states.

'But states are not equal, consequently we will have to take account of their different size,' he added.

The paper will most likely back a large Commission with an 'internal organisation' to enable it to work effectively.

Although the paper may not go into precise details, the options for internal organisation would include weighting the commissioners' votes according to the size of their country's population, or creating a 'two-tier' Commission.

This latter idea, first aired by Prodi in June, would see an inner cabinet of up to ten Commission vice-presidents concentrating on essential tasks. The other commissioners would act as 'ministers without portfolio'.

A rotation system would ensure that each country would take its turn to have a representative in the inner cabinet.

However, this option inevitably raises the question of voting rights.

Will all commissioners have the same weight over decisions? If not, two classes of commissioners would be created, not only in terms of organisation, but also of power. This would be hard to swallow for many.

In addition, in order to take account of the fact that a majority of commissioners would represent a minority of the EU's population, in a Commission of 27 decisions could not be taken by simple majority. They would be carried if three quarters of votes cast are in favour, for example, or if backed by commissioners representing a majority of the EU population.

Another possibility would be to grant a differing number of votes to each commissioner, according to the population of his or her home country.

However, this option would effectively transform the Commission into a second Council of Ministers, where countries' votes are already weighted.

It would also alter the Commission's 'collegial' character and strengthen national fiefdoms within the institution.

Each commissioner would be increasingly associated with the country he or she represents, which would give him/her a certain power within the institution and a certain number of votes.

One Commission insider claims that this proposal is a 'Machiavellian' tactical move to bully small states into accepting a 'restricted Commission', given that in a large one they will anyway not have the same powers as the large countries.

The strategy may already be bearing fruit, as several small countries' leaders have hinted they may change their minds on restricting the size of the Commission.

For example, Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt says he would back a smaller Commission, provided a rotation system is set up.

The 'optimum' number of commissioners, according to insiders, is between 12 and 16, corresponding to the number of the institution's key tasks.

The advantage of a reduced College would be an increased efficiency in decision-making and execution. In such a small team, commissioners would have equal voting rights, as they would represent the wider European interest rather than their member states.

Prodi likes the idea of a small Commission team and sees it as a means to build stronger ties with the Council and the European Parliament, to enable them to work better together, according to one of his advisors. For example, if there are 16 Council formations, there should be 16 commissioners, and 16 parliamentary committees working on corresponding tasks. That would increase the synergy between institutions, Prodi believes.

A commissioner told this paper that the College is unlikely to back a restricted Commission. The scenario likely to win the day is that of an 'inner-circle' Commission. One way or another, the Commission's composition or internal organisation will have to change, if the institution is to play a pivotal role in an enlarged EU.

Feature analyses the options as Romano Prodi and his team rethink the European Commission's composition.