Nice referendum hinges on ‘don’t knows’

Date: 17/10/02

By David Cronin

UNDECIDED voters hold the key to the outcome of this Saturday's crucial referendum in Ireland on the Nice Treaty.

Support for both the 'Yes' and 'No' camps appears to be diminishing, while the number of people saying they have not made up their mind has, perhaps surprisingly, risen.

An opinion poll published yesterday (16 October) gave the 'Yes' side 39 support, 22 for the 'Nos' and 31 undecided. The poll for The Star newspaper, conducted by Landsdowne Market Research, found 7 of respondents do not intend voting.

Last weekend, The Sunday Independent placed the 'Yes' vote at 41, the 'Nos' at 27, 'don't knows' at 24 and 'not voting' at 8.

Even allowing for a margin of error, the findings suggest that the outcome could be almost as close as the first poll, held last June, when the treaty was rejected by 54 to 46. Bertie Ahern's government, which is leading the 'Yes' campaign, is acutely aware that last time the polls had pointed to a positive result.

Among those now suggesting that the 'Nos' may again win the day are Michael Noonan, who stepped down as leader of opposition party Fine Gael earlier this year.

Although Noonan is strongly backing the 'Yes' side, he fears the electorate may use Saturday's vote to protest against the government's economic policies: it pledged before this summer's general election not to introduce swingeing cuts, but it now appears ready to do so.

In the final stages of the campaign, Ahern has vigorously denounced claims that Nice will erode Ireland's military neutrality as 'damned lies'.

On the contrary, he claims that voters will have a chance to insert a new clause in the Irish constitution, requiring another referendum before the country could sign up to a defence pact.

This follows a non-binding declaration by EU leaders at the Seville summit in June recognising Ireland's right to neutrality.

The 'No' camp has been damaged by the revelation that one of its most vocal figures, Justin Barrett, was involved with a European network of neo-Nazi and fascist groups. Barrett, a militant anti-abortion activist, admitted he attended rallies of the National Democratic Party in Germany but insists he did not know its membership included Hitler sympathisers.

Meanwhile, a veteran observer of Ireland's European policy this week attacked Nice for upsetting the balance between EU institutions created by the Treaty of Rome.

Eamonn Gallagher, a former director-general in the European Commission and ex-ambassador to the UN, is opposed to a clause in Nice on the future composition of the EU's executive.

This states that once the number of member states rises to 27, the number of commissioners will be lower than that figure. As a result, no EU country will be automatically entitled to have a seat at the Commission's top table.

According to Gallagher, this could lead to the interests of smaller states being overlooked.

He also queried assertions that the Commission would be too unwieldy if its composition more accurately reflected the number of member states. He pointed out that no comparable threshold has been set for other EU bodies like the Court of Justice and Court of Auditors.

'The Commission should be able to work with the fullest information, including personal experience from all corners of the Union,' added Gallagher.

'Efficiency is about running trains on time, not about preparing legislation for Europe.'

Undecided voters hold the key to the outcome of the forthcoming referendum in Ireland on the Nice Treaty, according to the results of an opinion poll published on 16 October 2002.