Nice carried, but road ahead is still rocky

Date: 24/10/02

By David Cronin

What were the factors behind Ireland's change of heart in the Nice referendum?

'I saw the danger yet I walked/Along the enchanted way/And I said let grief be a fallen leaf/At the dawning of the day.'

Raglan Road (Patrick Kavanagh)

BERTIE Ahern began his day of glory in the unlikely surroundings of a rain-drenched cemetery in County Kildare.

Just hours before the taoiseach (prime minister) announced Ireland's historic 'Yes' vote in the Nice Treaty referendum on Sunday, he was taking part in the yearly ritual homage to Theobald Wolfe Tone, the father of Irish republicanism who famously urged Catholic, Protestant and dissenter to unite against British rule.

The band behind Ahern played Raglan Road, a stirring ballad about the perils of falling in love. The taoiseach probably wasn't reflecting on the song's lyrics but they provided an apt metaphor for how he convinced his country's voters to back a treaty they rejected a year ago. There was inherent danger in trying to turn a 'No' into a 'Yes'. But the result - if not the way - was enchanted.

Later in the plush environs of Dublin Castle, a triumphant 'Yes' campaigner waved the Irish tricolour. It was an odd coincidence that Gerry Adams, leader of the nationalist Sinn Féin, stood at the far end of the room. Normally his supporters brandish scores of green, white and gold flags at election counts. But this time they were on the losing side and waving nothing.

How did Ahern do it? First and foremost, he convinced the electorate that supporting Nice was the patriotic thing to do. He appealed to people's generosity - and their selfishness too.

There is a widespread acceptance in Ireland that EU membership helped catapult the previously poor country into prosperity. The Dublin government struck a chord by arguing it would be mean-spirited not to give applicant states a similar chance by smoothing the path towards their EU entry. Despite the best efforts of the 'No' side to convince the public that Nice wasn't essential for enlargement, many accepted Ahern's word that it was.

His government also convinced people that a 'Yes' made sense from the point of view of national self-interest. Foreign Minister Brian Cowen echoed warnings from the business lobby that potential investors could become jittery if the country tried to weaken its bond with the rest of Europe.

Whereas last year's referendum took place at a time when the 'Celtic Tiger' economy remained buoyant, Saturday's vote came against the background of an economic downturn. Many people felt vulnerable when faced with the threat of what could happen if they voted 'No'.

The military questions associated with Nice proved similarly emotive during the campaign. Last year, the fear that the purportedly neutral country was being sucked into the NATO alliance was a key reason for the referendum's failure.

Anxious to avoid this happening again, Ahern accepted proposals from the opposition Labour Party on how those concerns could be allayed. First, he secured a (legally non-binding) declaration from the Seville summit, stating that his EU counterparts respected Ireland's right to remain neutral. And secondly, he agreed that if the referendum was carried, a clause would automatically be inserted into the Irish constitution, requiring a further poll before the country could sign up to a mutual defence pact.

In so doing, Ahern was able to argue that Irish neutrality would now have its strongest-ever legal protection. His party Fianna Fáil even produced posters declaring 'Vote Yes for neutrality'.

There's no doubt that Ahern owes a pint of Guinness or two to his political foes in the biggest opposition parties, Fine Gael and Labour. There was immense public anger a few weeks ago when a tribunal report named Ray Burke, who Ahern had appointed as foreign minister after the 1997 general election, as corrupt (for accepting bribes from property developers). But the two main opposition parties urged the electorate not to use the referendum as an opportunity to vent their frustration with Ahern.

Labour chief Ruairi Quinn asked his supporters not to make their protest until the European and local elections in 2004; a party slogan read: 'Hold your fire. Fianna Fáil can wait, but Europe can't.'

Similarly, Enlargement Commissioner Günter Verheugen and Romano Prodi, Commission president, owe a debt of gratitude to the Irish people. Few pundits believed their protestations that there was no 'Plan B' for how enlargement could proceed in the event of a second 'No'.

The commissioners have now been spared the ignominy of having to confess they've been working on an alternative strategy for some time.

Now that one of the potential hurdles to finishing the accession talks with ten EU wannabes in December has been cleared, eyes are inevitably going to turn to the remaining hurdles. The trickiest question is, of course, one of money. And we will know by this weekend if EU leaders at the Brussels summit (24-25 October) succeed in securing a deal on financing the EU's expansion.

Other potential headaches for the pro-enlargement camp include the volatile climate in the Netherlands. Although his government fell last week, caretaker Prime Minister Jan-Peter Balkenende claims he still has a mandate to take part in EU decisions ensuring the success of enlargement. Yet there has also been a clamour for delaying the process among many in the national parliament.

In Austria, meanwhile, far-right leader Jörg Haider has shown enduring hostility to the prospect of his Czech neighbours being welcomed into the EU fold while such topics as the Temelin nuclear plant and the post-war Benes Decrees remain contentious.

An opinion poll published this week indicated there is a possibility his Freedom Party could again form a government with the Christian Democrats after the 24 November general election. According to the poll, the Christian Democrats command 35 of the vote, while the Freedom Party has 13.

Speaking to European Voice, Irish EU commissioner David Byrne played down fears that enlargement could still be thrown into disarray: 'Had there been a 'No' vote in Ireland, then those expressing concerns [about enlargement] in other member states may have had wind in their sails. But the fact there has been a very clear and resounding 'Yes' vote in Ireland should undermine any move from other member states against the project.'

Time will tell whether or not he is right.

Major feature analysing the result of the Irish referendum on the Nice Treaty, 19 October 2002.