Copenhagen has many obstacles to overcome in push for enlargement

Date: 27/06/02

Denmark has set out the stall for its EU presidency, with the overriding objective being to complete negotiations with up to ten candidate states. The will is certainly there, but the task won't be easy, writes David Cronin.

VISITORS to the Tivoli Gardens are frequently regaled by a tuxedo-clad crooner parodying Frank Sinatra. Yet the sounds filling Copenhagen's huge amusement park - which boasts the oldest wooden roller-coaster in the world - will have more Eastern or Mediterranean flavours over the next week.

To celebrate the start of Denmark's EU presidency, the city's culture vultures will be offered such manifold treats as Maltese dance, a Greek Cypriot tragedy, Czech rock and Lithuanian jazz.

While these countries' performers are only being offered a temporary home in Denmark, Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen wants their citizens to be offered a permanent home in the Union before the end of this year (even if they will not move in until 2004).

Indeed, Rasmussen has stated that, like the Swedish presidency in the first half of 2001, his motto will be the 'three E's'.

In Sweden's case, that meant 'enlargement, employment and environment'. For Copenhagen it is simply 'enlargement, enlargement, enlargement'.

Fittingly, it was in the city of the Little Mermaid and Carlsberg lager that the conditions for EU membership were set, back in 1993. Since then, each of the 12 countries involved in accession talks has been judged according to the so-called Copenhagen criteria.

Liberal leader Rasmussen, who heads a coalition government with the Conservatives, has repeatedly said that completing talks with up to ten of those states will be his overriding priority during the next six months. But the pragmatic Scandinavian is also aware that there are several key hurdles at which he could fall. These can be summarised under four headings:

Money

During last weekend's Seville summit, EU leaders agreed they would give applicant states clear answers on 'all the items lacking' in respect of how enlargement should be financed in November.

By far the trickiest question is: can the EU afford to shower farmers in central and eastern Europe with the same benefits as their counterparts in existing member states?

Earlier this year the European Commission proposed that those farmers should have to wait almost a decade before receiving the same amount.

Predicting how this issue can be tackled is made all the more difficult by the fact that elections are looming in the Union's main paymaster, Germany, where incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schröder faces a strong challenge from his centre-right nemesis Edmund Stoiber.

The Germans are resolutely opposed to making any pledge on extending direct payments before they study Commission proposals - expected next month - on reforming the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Berlin is, therefore, reluctant to commit itself to consider the November deadline as carved in stone.

'If EU policies, above all agricultural subsidies, remain as they are, enlargement can become very expensive,' said Chancellor Schröder in an interview this week.

'Without changes, Germany's net contribution to the EU budget [of about €95 billion] would double to €20 billion in 2007 from around €10 billion today.'

Cyprus

In 1999 EU leaders declared that the long-running dispute between Greek and Turkish Cypriots would not necessarily have to be settled before the sunny island joins the Union. They may publicly stick to that line but the leaders are keen to encourage both communities to overcome their differences - especially as Ankara has threatened to annex northern Cyprus if enlargement occurs while the island remains divided.

Intense dialogue between the island's President Giafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot chief Rauf Denktash has been taking place for some months in a bid to heal their rift.

The two men are understood to have found some common ground on the possible constitutional arrangements that could apply in a unified state.

Yet bickering over emotive issues such as what should happen to property taken from Greek Cypriots at the time of the 1974 Turkish invasion makes the prospect of meeting the deadline of reaching an outline deal by the end of this month remote.

Kaliningrad

Russia's Baltic enclave Kaliningrad will be an immediate EU neighbour once Lithuania and Poland join. Russian President Vladimir Putin is holding firm to his demand that free movement of people and goods between the old naval base and the Union be guaranteed. But EU officials insist this would not be possible under the Schengen accord.

Danish civil servants say they are optimistic they can sort out this conundrum - now the key bone of contention between Brussels and Moscow - but are reticent about how exactly they plan to do so.

Nice

Last year Romano Prodi conceded that the bringing into force of the Nice Treaty is not a legal necessity for enlargement. But the European Commission president has consistently argued it is a political necessity as it provides for changes to the EU's institutional set-up aimed at smoothing the transition from a Union of 15 to one of 27 members. Ireland is the only EU country which has asked its voters what they think of the treaty; 12 months ago they decided to reject it.

Bertie Ahern's government is now planning to hold another poll on the treaty in October or November and it is conceivable it will lose a second time. EU leaders tried to allay fears of many voters about the militarisation of Europe by issuing a declaration at the Seville summit stating that they respected the Irish tradition of neutrality. But the anti-Nice lobby looks set to make capital out of the fact that this statement is not legally binding.

The shock waves from a fresh Irish 'no' vote - perhaps only a month before the final summit of the Danish presidency - could be more palpable in Copenhagen than Cork.

Challenges facing Denmark's presidency of the EU, July-December 2002.

http://www.eu2002.dk/main/ http://www.eu2002.dk/main/

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