Why Iceland is on track to become the EU’s 26th member state

Date: 30/05/02

Ten countries are set to join the EU in less than two years, while Bulgaria and Romania are redoubling their efforts to be next in line. But a country that has yet to even apply to join the 'club' may get in before them, writes Dick Leonard.

AS THE climax approaches in the membership negotiations with the ten leading candidates, it is becoming increasingly clear that - even if they all succeed in entering together in a 'big bang' scenario in 2004 - the enlargement saga will by no means be over.

Bulgaria and Romania are redoubling their efforts to be no more than a couple of years behind, and the Turks have set themselves the ambitious target of starting negotiations early next year.

In early May, Croatian Prime Minister Ivica Racan predicted that his country's membership application would be submitted no later than January 2003.

His European integration minister, Neven Mimica, declared at a joint press conference with Macedonia's Deputy Premier Zoran Krstevski that there were 'good chances' that both Croatia and Macedonia would be 'able to meet the requirements for joining the European Union as fully-fledged members by 2006'.

Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia-Montenegro may not be far behind in tabling their applications - although none can expect a quick or easy road to membership.

All the Balkan countries, however, may find themselves leap-frogged by a country at the other extremity of Europe.

Until recently, very few people had expected Iceland to take the plunge. The overwhelming dependence of its economy on the fishing industry had seemed to exclude the possibility of membership, as Iceland was unwilling to submit its prime resource to the authority of the EU's Common Fisheries Policy (CFP).

Thus, when Norway applied for membership, both in 1970 and in 1993, Iceland remained aloof. That at least had the advantage that - unlike Norwegians - Icelanders were never polarised on the issue of whether or not to seek EU membership.

Now Iceland's most pragmatic politician - Halldór Ásgrímsson, the foreign minister and leader of the (Liberal) Progressive Party - has suddenly placed the issue of Icelandic membership firmly on the agenda.

Speaking in Berlin, on the occasion of 50 years of diplomatic relations between Iceland and Germany, he has for the first time suggested that the CFP may not, after all, be an insuperable barrier.

Referring to the current review of the CFP, which is due to be completed by the end of this year, Ásgrímsson suggested ways in which Iceland could participate without losing control of its own resources.

'It seems to me,' he said, 'quite clear from the rules of implementation of the policy that the Icelandic economic zone could be a separate management zone and catch quotas would be issued on the basis of previous fishing experience and, therefore, remain in Icelandic hands.'

Ásgrímsson noted that there was a great difference between Icelandic fishing stocks and those in the North Sea, where fleets from the UK, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands all work, 'and it makes sense to have common rules on how to manage and share them'.

It is, he said, 'generally recognised by fisheries experts around the world, including the EU, that most fish stocks around Iceland remain within Icelandic waters.

'It is not a shared resource any more than Finnish trees are a shared resource or British oil.'

There is, he continued, 'another very important concept developed by the EU...the principle of subsidiarity is to allow decisions to be taken as close as possible to the level where they will have their effect.

'The aim of subsidiarity is to ensure that common rules are not established where they are unnecessary or undesirable.

'Thus, subsidiarity applied to the Common Fisheries Policy would recognise the essentially local nature of fisheries around Iceland.'

Ásgrímsson's remarks came in the wake of a massive swing of opinion in Iceland where, in a recent opinion poll, 91 of citizens declared themselves in favour of opening membership negotiations.

The main reason appears to be the ultra-smooth introduction of the euro, which Icelanders see as the key to stabilising their own economic situation.

The Icelandic krona has plunged in international currency markets, leading to a hike in interest rates, which has had a serious effect on investment and employment.

Joining the euro, Icelanders feel, would get rid of currency fluctuations and provide the conditions for a new long-term stabilisation.

If the EU were able to agree to interpret the CFP along the lines suggested by Ásgrímsson, the remaining elements in any membership negotiation would be little more than a formality.

As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), Iceland has already implemented more than 80 of the acquis communautaire, the body of EU laws and policies, and fully participates in the Schengen agreement as well as virtually all the other EU programmes open to non-member states.

But it would be impossible for Iceland to enter overnight, even if all the negotiations were completed in double-quick time.

It would be necessary to amend the Icelandic constitution, and then to have the amendments confirmed by a new Parliament following a general election.

A referendum would not be mandatory but, in all probability, would also be held.

Even so, there is a distinct possibility that Iceland could become the 26th member of the EU, ahead of both Bulgaria and Romania.

In Berlin, Ásgrímsson was careful to say that he was not suggesting that an Icelandic application was imminent.

It is, in fact, unlikely to materialise in advance of the general election due in the first half of 2003.

Before then the views of the different political parties are expected to crystallise.

The opposition Social Democratic party plans to consult its members later this year. The expected result is a majority in favour.

By contrast, the Red-Green Party, also in opposition, seems to be firmly against.

Ásgrímsson's party will probably follow his lead. However, its coalition partner - the Independence Party of Prime Minister David Oddson - is divided.

Oddson himself, Europe's longest serving premier, is deeply sceptical about the virtues of membership, and unhappy that Iceland would be a substantial net contributor.

If, despite this, a membership bid is launched, it could sound the death-knell for the EEA.

It would put enormous pressure on Norway - its only other non-EU member apart from Liechtenstein - to follow suit, and knock for the third time on Europe's door.

Major feature.