Ankara’s push for reform raises hopes for EU breakthrough

Date: 10/01/02

Planned constitutional changes and anti-corruption measures in Turkey, along with signs of progress over divided Cyprus, are boosting Ankara's aim of finally joining the Union, writes Dick Leonard

HAS the Turkish government finally summoned up the resolve the take the necessary but difficult steps to secure the opening of its membership negotiations with the European Union?

It's not yet certain, but recent signs have been highly encouraging.

The turning point may have been the reaching of a pre-accession partnership agreement with the European Commission last March, under which Turkey will receive financial and other assistance in preparing to adapt to the EU's acquis communautaire. In its report to the Laeken summit last month, the Commission said that 'Turkey has made substantial preparatory efforts for its implementation. Turkey gained greater understanding of the acquis and the government has started an intensive process of preparation of new legislation'.

Then, on 3 October 2001, the Turkish Parliament adopted a package of 34 amendments to the 1982 constitution, with new provisions on issues such as freedom of thought and expression, the prevention of torture, the strengthening of civilian authority, freedom of association and gender equality.

These measures were not adopted purely to meet the EU's political criteria for entry. As Foreign Minister Ismail Cem pointed out in an interview this week, many Turks, himself included, had been campaigning for such reforms for many years before the EU had accepted Turkey's candidacy.

Nevertheless, the fact remains - provided that these constitutional changes are fully implemented - they represent a large step down the road towards membership of the EU.

Just before Laeken the Turks gave a further sign of their goodwill by withdrawing their objections to the EU's use of NATO hardware and planning facilities for its Rapid Reaction Force. This upset the Greek government, whose objection was evidently more to the agreement with the Turks having been reached 'behind its back' rather than to the substance of what was agreed. The new Spanish presidency seems confident that it can bring the Greeks back on board within a week or two.

At the turn of the year, Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz announced a mass of legislation to be put before the Turkish parliament over the next three months. Several economic bills and anti-corruption measures are being rushed through by next Monday, when Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit is due in Washington for talks. These will be not only with President George W. Bush, but also with the IMF, from whom he is seeking a €18.3 billion loan as part of a three-year standby agreement.

Most of the remaining bills are specifically designed to adjust Turkish legislation in accordance with EU norms. By the beginning of 2003, Yilmaz said, Turkey should have overcome its economic problems and be in a position to open membership negotiations with the EU.

This is a highly ambitious, but not inconceivable target. Although there is no direct connection, its realisation could depend to a large extent on the face-to-face talks between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders which open in Nicosia on Wednesday (16 January), under the chairmanship of the Special UN advisor, Alvaro de Soto.

These talks were made possible after a change of tack by Rauf Denktas, who had previously refused any direct contact with Glafcos Clerides, the President of the Republic of Cyprus.

They have been preceded by two dinner parties, one in northern and one in southern Cyprus, in which the two leaders got together in congenial surroundings, and the body language of the previously dour Denktas strongly suggested that he is genuinely seeking agreement.

It would be wrong to conclude that Denktas has been pushed into this more accommodating stance by pressure from Ecevit and the Turkish military authorities, though it is improbable that he would have agreed to the talks without their tacit approval.

What has influenced Denktas are the changes in public opinion in the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus (TRNC), particularly among young people.

Opinion polls in the breakaway republic have shown 90 support for membership of the EU, and a growing awareness that this could only be achieved on the basis of an agreement with the Greek Cypriots. A turning point in Denktas's own perception may well have come during the making of a television programme in October by the well known Turkish journalist, Ali Biran.

Biran had previously interviewed Clerides, and during his interview with Denktas argued persuasively that the differences between the two leaders were more a matter of form than of content.

He added to Denktas's discomfort by producing the views of a series of young Turkish Cypriot workers who said that they were losing patience with the situation in the TRNC, where low incomes, high unemployment and galloping emigration figures were sapping all their hopes. It was shortly after this broadcast that Denktas agreed to the talks with Clerides. Of course, agreement does not now depend only on him.

Unless the Greek leader is prepared to accept a federated or confederated state in which the security of the Turkish Cypriot community is guaranteed and which leaves it largely responsible for its own affairs, Denktas would be quite justified in refusing to sign on the dotted line. The EU will not be present at the talks, but will follow their course closely. De Soto is believed to be aiming for a comprehensive settlement by June at the latest.

This would fit in nicely with the EU's enlargement timetable, leaving just enough time for the Turkish Cypriots to join the Cyprus team and wind up the negotiations by the end of the year.

The stakes could hardly be higher. Success would finally resolve the Cyprus problem after 28 years of deadlock, and open the way both for the island and, eventually, Turkey to take their rightful places within the European Community. Failure could put the entire enlargement scenario in jeopardy, and postpone indefinitely any possibility of Turkish entry.

Major feature. Planned constitutional changes and anti-corruption measures in Turkey, along with signs of progress over divided Cyprus, are boosting Ankara's aim of finally joining the European Union.