Elections to the Welsh Assembly: Proportionality, continuity and change

Abstract:

This article considers the impact of using a proportional system on elections to the Welsh Assembly. The study uses evidence form 13 General and European election results to predict the probable result of a Welsh Assembly election using the Welsh variation of the Additional Member System. The probable outcomes are compared with the result of the first Assembly election and conclusions drawn about the evolution of voting patterns in Wales. The analysis is concluded within the context of the theoretical and conceptual debate about proportional representation and the existence of a distinctive Welsh political culture.