With friends like these: Turkey, Russia, and the end of an unlikely alliance

The growing friendship between Russia and Turkey in recent years was a problem for Europe. But their bust-up in November 2015 – after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet over Syria – was an even bigger one.

The two countries were drawn together in the last decade by growing economic ties and the rapport between their strongman leaders, threatening to create an anti-Western axis on Europe’s borders. But the downing of the jet thrust them into a confrontation that could spiral into proxy war in Syria and damage Europe’s effort to cope with the refugee crisis, according to this paper from the European Council on Foreign Relations published in June 2016.

'With friends like these: Turkey, Russia, and the end of an unlikely alliance', argues that Europe can’t afford for their conflict to grow more intense. The Syrian war, the refugee crisis, and the Kurdish question are deeply intertwined. And Turkey is not only a NATO member and EU candidate, but a key part of planned Russian energy routes to Europe.

Tensions first began to rise as the one-time friends were sucked into the regional struggle for Syria – while Russia backed Assad, Turkey agitated for regime change. As the alliance unravelled, Moscow broke the silent pact that neither side would support the other’s separatists, and made moves to befriend the Kurds. For its part, Ankara slunk back towards NATO and the West.

An all-out clash between two major powers on Europe’s borders is not in anyone’s interest. The chance of a direct military confrontation between the two powers has receded – for now – as Turkish forces avoid Syrian airspace and Ankara moderates its ambitions for regime change. Still, a return to normal will take a long time.

Europe should take this chance to push Turkey in the right direction – back towards democracy and European values, and away from Russian-style nationalism and crony capitalism. The paper argues that Europe should work to draw Turkey back into its sphere, building on the refugee deal and visa liberalisation, and encourage Ankara to diversify its energy supplies away from Russia.

At the same time, Europe should increase its role in the Syria talks, helping to de-conflict Russian and Turkish actions in the country. It should develop its own Kurdish policy, facilitating talks between Turkish and Syrian Kurdish forces, to help reduce tensions within Turkey and ensure that Europe is not left out of the high-stakes game that the US and Russia are playing in the region.

ESO: Background information: 77 ELN Members Warn of Growing Risk of Interstate War in the Middle East http://www.europeansources.info/record/77-eln-members-warn-of-growing-risk-of-interstate-war-in-the-middle-east/

ESO: Background information: Turkey detains suspected killer of downed Russian pilot http://www.europeansources.info/record/turkey-detains-suspected-killer-of-downed-russian-pilot/

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