The ‘New Liberals’: can Egypt’s civil opposition save the revolution?

For decades, common wisdom dictated that only political Islam would be able to take power once Arab dictators fell. The Arab spring came as a golden moment for the popular, well-prepared Islamists to establish their political influence in the post-revolutionary political orders of Egypt and Tunisia.

Two years after the revolutions, however, the impact of non-Islamist currents on the political scene of both countries is growing. Egypt’s transition to democracy is embattled.

Instead of elebrating the second anniversary of the 2011 revolution, mounting protests against the policies of President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) spread across Egypt in January and February 2013. So far, the MB’s experience in power supports the idea that democracy can work against itself, to the degree that the democratically-elected Islamists and their allies seem to be seeking to undermine democratic institutions.

Political developments over the past eight months suggest that the Islamists no longer enjoy overwhelming support in Egypt. A poll conducted by the Egyptian Centre for Public Opinion Research in March 2013 showed that only 47 per cent of Egyptians thought President Morsi was ‘doing well’, compared to 78 per cent just after his first 100 days in power. Despite its sinking popularity, the MB still has significant organisational capabilities and has managed to strengthen its control over public institutions.

The Brotherhood’s crumbling hegemony opens a window of opportunity for liberals and leftists (known in Egypt as the ‘civil’ political forces) to build on the Islamists’ failures and shift power relations to their favour.