The impact of demographic change on European regions

The core long-term structural demographic change in Europe is ageing: the current ratio of working age population to old dependent population below 4 to 1 will, according to Eurostat projections, be replaced by a ratio of 2 to 1 by 2050.

Demographic change in individual Local and Regional Authorities (LRAs) will depend on their capacity to attract the working-age population. However, concentrations of seniors in specific localities and regions do not necessarily constitute a challenge or handicap, insofar as this population’s income from retirement schemes provides the basis for the development of a wide range of economic activities.

The observation of demographic trends at the NUTS2 and NUTS3 levels between 2000 and 2014 reveals demographic decline across large parts of Eastern Europe, and especially in the Baltic States, in Bulgaria and Romania, eastern German Länder, Slovakia and Croatia. In most of these areas, ‘islands’ of demographic growth can be observed around capital and metropolitan cities.

Western European regions experience more limited demographic decline observable at the regional level: southern Italy, eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, inner parts of France and northern Scandinavia are the main areas concerned.

The overall picture can then be synthesised of east-west polarisation on the one hand, and an axis of population loss or stagnation running from eastern Finland and the Baltic States, through Germany and France to Portugal.

Author: Spatial Foresight, ÖIR and t33.

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