Nagorno-Karabakh: what is Russia up to?

The clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia from 2 to 5 April 2016 were accompanied by unprecedented activity by Moscow, which had allowed it to dominate the Karabakh peace process at this stage. Russia brought about a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh on 5 April 2016, and then developed a diplomatic campaign which, as its representatives stated, was aimed at a long-term settlement of the conflict. It seemed that in the near future Russia would present a peace plan, which may include the following elements: the restoration of Baku’s control over some of the so-called ‘occupied territories’ (outside Karabakh) which were taken over by the Armenians, as well as security guarantees for the unrecognised Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. The plan would also most likely include the introduction of Russian peacekeeping forces into the zone of conflict. Everything indicated that formally Moscow intended to pursue its objectives within the framework of the existing international formats, especially the OSCE’s Minsk Group, which it co-chairs with France and the United States. This would allow it to rebuild its image as a regional power taking responsibility for its neighbourhood, and to gain recognition for its effective mediation.

ESO: Background information: The four-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh http://www.europeansources.info/record/the-four-day-war-in-nagorno-karabakh/

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