Communication: 2015 European Semester: country-specific recommendations

Growth is returning to the EU, with Europe’s economies benefitting from many supporting factors at once. Oil prices are relatively low, global growth is steady, the euro has continued to depreciate and economic policies in the EU are supportive of growth. In its latest economic forecast published on 5 May 2015, the Commission forecasts GDP growth to be 1.8% in the EU (1.5% in the euro area) in 2015 and expects the trend to accelerate to 2.1% in 2016 (1.9% in the euro area).

However, these positive developments are largely short-term. The EU still faces underlying weaknesses as a result of the crisis and the low longer-term growth trends already experienced pre-crisis. While the labour market situation is gradually improving, not least due to reforms implemented in several Member States in recent years, unemployment is still intolerably high (9.6%). Poverty and marginalisation have increased. The high level of private and public debt continues to weigh on investment and growth in a context of persistently low growth and low inflation.

In some Member States, the share of non-performing bank loans is high and still rising. A large investment gap estimated at over €300 billion accumulated over the past six years has had a negative effect on domestic demand in the short term and on potential growth in the medium to long term. The trend of declining productivity growth has not yet been reversed and population ageing will have big impacts on the future labour force. Greater efforts are needed to overcome these weaknesses and build a robust and balanced recovery that is sustainable beyond the short run.

Since taking office, this Commission has set out a focused and ambitious economic and social agenda and has streamlined the European Semester process to concentrate on the most urgent priorities. In its 2015 Annual Growth Survey, the Commission put forward three interrelated priorities for EU level economic policy: a coordinated boost to investment, a renewed commitment to structural reforms, and pursuing fiscal responsibility.

The 2015 country-specific recommendations and the new recommendation to the euro area have been selected against this background to focus on growth drivers that will help make the recovery sustainable and prevent sluggish growth once the temporary tailwinds fade.

EUR-Lex: COM(2015)250: Follow the progress of this communication through the decision-making procedure http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/HIS/?uri=COM:2015:250:FIN

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