Brexit unknowns

What do we not know about Brexit? An awful lot. We don't even know when the negotiations can start, let alone what they will be about. This paper looks at some of the basic unknowns.

Article 50 unknowns
So much about the mechanics, the legal effects and the policy consequences of Brexit is unclear or unknown. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), which allows Member States to leave the European Union, has never been used before. Its meaning and how it will be used are not entirely clear.

The UK exit negotiation process has not yet started and will not start formally until notice of the intention to leave the EU is given under Article 50 TEU. The Prime Minister, Theresa May, has said this will be done before the end of March 2017. The exit negotiations will last two years, or longer if all the other EU Member States agree an extension.

Negotiation unknowns
The biggest ‘unknown’ is what the withdrawal agreement and any other agreements linked to Brexit will contain. Almost all policy questions depend on the outcome of the exit negotiations and the kind of agreement(s) reached. Most Brexit ‘unknowns’ are therefore predicated on this main ‘unknown’.

We don’t know how long the process will take or even when it will start. We can’t calculate the economic impact or say for sure how the Devolved Nations will be affected. We don’t know what the withdrawal agreement will look like or what other agreements the UK will negotiate with the EU to settle future relations.

Further information

In September 2018 an updated edition of Brexit Unknowns was published which dealt with the following issues:

+ The Brexit process
+ Constitutional issues
+ Devolution
+ Trade relations
- Rollover of current EU third country agreements
- EU-UK trade relations
+ The Irish border issue
+ Free movement of people
+ Settling financial commitments: the ‘exit bill’
+ UK participation in EU programmes and agencies
+ Security, law enforcement and criminal justice cooperation
+ Data protection and data sharing
+ Food and farming
+ Fisheries
+ Defence
+ Statistics

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

ESO: Background information: Brexit: impact across policy areas http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-impact-across-policy-areas/

UK: Parliament: Parliamentary Business: Publications and Records: Research publications: Brexit: the next steps for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/eu-referendum/

openDemocracy: Can Europe Make It?, 11.11.16: Soft or hard Brexit: do the UK’s political parties know what they want? https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/kirsty-hughes/soft-or-hard-brexit-do-uk-s-political-parties-know-what-they-want

United Kingdom: House of Commons: Library: Briefing Paper, No.8408 (26.09.18): Brexit Unknowns (update) http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8408/CBP-8408.pdf

UK in a Changing Europe: Blog, 03.10.18: Brexit’s known unknowns http://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexits-known-unknowns/

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