Brexit Negotiations – The View From the EU: A Cicero Group analysis, October 2016

UK Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed in October 2016 that Article 50 will be triggered no later than March 2017. Once this happens, the UK will enter into a complex and difficult negotiation in which the UK’s objectives are pitted against those of 27 Member States and the European institutions. To distil the varying positions of the Member States, Cicero Group have produced a report identifying a set of key economic, political and social variables in selected Member States that will shape their negotiating positions.

The picture that emerges is that like the UK, other Member States have their own domestic considerations and interests that will inform their negotiating position. Additionally, all Member States agree that the cost of a deal that makes leaving the EU look like a viable alternative to membership far outweighs the cost of new trade barriers with a single country. This simple calculation is likely to be the guiding principle of their negotiation. This points towards a far more complicated and difficult negotiation than many acknowledge.

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

ESO: Background information: Statement from the EU27 regarding the outcome of the UK's referendum on EU membership http://www.europeansources.info/record/statement-from-the-eu27-regarding-the-outcome-of-the-uks-referendum-on-eu-membership/

ESO: Background information: Informal meeting of the 27 heads of state or government, Bratislava, 16 September 2016 http://www.europeansources.info/record/informal-meeting-of-the-27-heads-of-state-or-government-bratislava-16-september-2016/

Blog: UK in a Changing Europe, 05.12.16: Understanding non-British views of Brexit http://ukandeu.ac.uk/understanding-non-british-views-of-brexit/

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