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Abstract:
The Road Map to normalization of bilateral Armenian-Turkish relations announced in April 2009 has not yet been made public, and a slowdown is evident in the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. Turkey’s strategy involves working to mitigate Azerbaijan’s resentment against potential Armenian-Turkish normalization by tying its progress to the resolution of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh in a way that suits Azerbaijan. As a result, however, Armenian society is becoming increasingly apprehensive of the entire Armenian-Turkish dialogue. Tying rapprochement to the conflict makes sense from a zero-sum-game perspective but risks jeopardizing the entire process, as the formats and stakeholders are too different. Timing is the key factor now: political actors and societies are becoming frustrated and are no longer certain that the project of rapprochement has a future. Should no definite step towards normalization be made by autumn 2009, public frustration may overwhelm the project and mutual relations may end up worse than they were prior to the start of football diplomacy.
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